A-League Men (Australia), round 4 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Auckland FC — Wellington Phoenix
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Auckland FC are clear favourites: 53% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Auckland FC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Auckland FC are 121 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Auckland FC — No. 6, 4 pts; Wellington Phoenix — No. 1, 9 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Wellington Phoenix: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Auckland FC 5 wins, Wellington Phoenix 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Auckland FC — Wellington Phoenix What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Auckland FC not to lose | 80% | |
| Wellington Phoenix not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Auckland FC
- Auckland FC goals
- Wellington Phoenix goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Auckland FC | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 1.22 | 1.54 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.52 | 1.33 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| On target | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Possession, % | 45 | 42 |
Form
- 30.10away · Brisbane Roar FC1:1
- 24.10away · Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:5
- 17.10Melbourne City FC3:1
- 23.05Sydney FC1:0
- 15.05away · Adelaide United3:0
- 31.10away · Newcastle Jets3:0
- 25.10Central Coast Mariners2:0
- 18.10Melbourne Victory2:1
- 24.04away · Macarthur FC0:4
- 18.04Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:1
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Wellington Phoenix — Auckland FC0:5
- 06.12.2025Auckland FC — Wellington Phoenix3:1
- 08.11.2025Wellington Phoenix — Auckland FC1:2
- 22.02.2025Auckland FC — Wellington Phoenix6:1
- 07.12.2024Auckland FC — Wellington Phoenix2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Finals series | Wellington Phoenix | 3 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 2, Finals series | Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 3 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 5, Finals series | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6, Finals series | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
A-League on the same day
- 4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →