A-League Men (Australia), round 4 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Melbourne City FC — Western Sydney Wanderers FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Melbourne City FC are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Melbourne City FC are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Melbourne City FC are 154 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Melbourne City FC — No. 7, 4 pts; Western Sydney Wanderers FC — No. 2, 5 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Melbourne City FC 1 win, Western Sydney Wanderers FC 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Melbourne City FC — Western Sydney Wanderers FC What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Melbourne City FC not to lose | 77% | |
| Western Sydney Wanderers FC not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Melbourne City FC
- Melbourne City FC goals
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Melbourne City FC | Western Sydney Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.51 | 1.50 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Shots | 15.2 | 15.6 |
| On target | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 56 |
Form
- 31.10Sydney FC2:1
- 24.10away · Melbourne Victory1:1
- 17.10away · Auckland FC1:3
- 02.05away · Auckland FC1:1
- 26.04Adelaide United1:2
- 31.10away · Macarthur FC0:0
- 24.10Auckland FC5:2
- 16.10away · Sydney FC0:0
- 25.04Melbourne Victory0:2
- 18.04away · Wellington Phoenix1:2
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Melbourne City FC — Western Sydney Wanderers FC3:0
- 07.02.2026Western Sydney Wanderers FC — Melbourne City FC1:1
- 18.10.2025Western Sydney Wanderers FC — Melbourne City FC1:1
- 19.04.2025Western Sydney Wanderers FC — Melbourne City FC2:2
- 30.11.2024Melbourne City FC — Western Sydney Wanderers FC0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Finals series | Wellington Phoenix | 3 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 2, Finals series | Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 3 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 3, Finals series | Macarthur FC | 3 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 6, Finals series | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Perth Glory | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
A-League on the same day
- 5326201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →