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Swiss Super League, round 14 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Basel — Luzern

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Model prediction for 22 November

Basel41%
Draw26%
Luzern33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Basel are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 26%.

3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 70%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • League table: Basel — No. 7, 14 pts; Luzern — No. 8, 13 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Basel: winless in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Basel 3 wins, Luzern 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Basel — Luzern What is xG?1.9–1.6
Basel not to lose67%
Luzern not to lose59%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes70%
Both teams to score: no30%
Total over 2.568%
Total under 2.532%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Basel
  • Basel goals
  • Luzern goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatBaselLuzern
Goals scored per match1.71.8
Goals conceded per match2.11.9
xG per match1.202.00
Opponents’ xG1.752.13
Shots13.117.0
On target3.95.2
Corners3.95.2
Cards2.62.7
Possession, %5446

Averages per match: Basel — the last 10, Luzern — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Basel

  • 01.11away · Lugano1:2
  • 25.10Grasshopper0:0
  • 11.10away · FC Vaduz0:3
  • 20.09St. Gallen1:3
  • 13.09away · Luzern4:2

Luzern

  • 31.10Sion1:1
  • 24.10away · FC Zürich1:2
  • 10.10away · Lugano0:4
  • 19.09Grasshopper5:1
  • 13.09Basel2:4

Head to head

  • 13.09.2026Luzern — Basel2:4
  • 22.02.2026Luzern — Basel4:2
  • 17.12.2025Luzern — Basel1:2
  • 28.09.2025Basel — Luzern1:2
  • 24.05.2025Basel — Luzern4:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
6, Championship roundServette1251617–16+116
7, Relegation roundBasel1242618–22-414
8, Relegation roundLuzern1234519–25-613
9, Relegation roundThun1241724–34-1013

Season 2026/27

Full table

Swiss Super League on the same day

  • FC ZürichSt. Gallenpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.4
  • LausanneFC Vaduzpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →