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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 13 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3)

Boston River — Montevideo City Torque

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Boston River31%
Draw27%
Montevideo City Torque42%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Montevideo City Torque to win (42%), came true.

Montevideo City Torque are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 27%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Montevideo City Torque are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Boston River 2 wins, Montevideo City Torque 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Boston River — Montevideo City Torque What is xG?1.3–1.6
Boston River not to lose58%
Montevideo City Torque not to lose69%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes60%
Both teams to score: no40%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Boston River
  • Boston River goals
  • Montevideo City Torque goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 18′Fredy Martínez · Boston River
  2. 63′Luka Andrade · Montevideo City Torque0:1
  3. 70′Francisco Bonfiglio · missed penalty · Boston River
  4. 72′Francisco Bonfiglio · Boston River1:1
  5. 85′Nahuel Da Silva · Montevideo City Torque1:2
Substitutions (9)
  1. 61′Felipe Avenatti ↔ Leonardo Suárez · Boston River
  2. 76′Nahuel Da Silva ↔ Esteban Obregón · Montevideo City Torque
  3. 81′Ramiro Lecchini ↔ Eduardo Agüero · Montevideo City Torque
  4. 81′Ezequiel Busquets ↔ Pablo Siles · Montevideo City Torque
  5. 81′Franco Pérez ↔ Francisco Bonfiglio · Boston River
  6. 81′Facundo Saravia ↔ Lautaro Vázquez · Boston River
  7. 87′Sebastián Cáceres ↔ Luka Andrade · Montevideo City Torque
  8. 88′Nicolás Siri ↔ Leandro Suhr · Boston River
  9. 88′José Tarán ↔ Salomón Rodríguez · Montevideo City Torque

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Boston River

  1. GKBruno Antúnez
  2. DFFredy Martínez
  3. DFJuan Acosta
  4. DFIgnacio Fernández
  5. DFMartín González
  6. MFRodrigo Saravia
  7. MFFacundo Muñoa
  8. MFLautaro Vázquez81′
  9. FWLeonardo Suárez61′
  10. FWLeandro Suhr88′
  11. FWFrancisco Bonfiglio81′
Came on (4)
  1. FWFelipe Avenatti29′
  2. FWNicolás Siri2′
  3. FWFranco Pérez9′
  4. DFFacundo Saravia9′

Montevideo City Torque

  1. GKFranco Torgnascioli
  2. DFEduardo Agüero81′
  3. DFGary Kagelmacher
  4. DFFacundo Silvera
  5. DFBrian Gutiérrez
  6. MFPablo Siles81′
  7. MFGonzalo Montes
  8. MFDiogo Guzmán
  9. FWSalomón Rodríguez88′
  10. FWEsteban Obregón76′
  11. FWLuka Andrade87′
Came on (5)
  1. FWNahuel Da Silva14′
  2. DFEzequiel Busquets9′
  3. MFSebastián Cáceres3′
  4. DFJosé Tarán2′
  5. FWRamiro Lecchini9′

Form

Boston River

  • 25.10away · Cerro Largo0:2
  • 17.10Defensor Sporting1:0
  • 10.10away · Montevideo Wanderers3:1
  • 04.10Juventud de las Piedras0:0
  • 27.09away · Club Atletico Peñarol1:2

Montevideo City Torque

  • 25.10Cerro3:1
  • 22.10Atlético-MG2:0
  • 18.10away · Albion1:2
  • 15.10away · Atlético-MG0:3
  • 09.10Danubio1:0

Head to head

  • 25.04.2026Montevideo City Torque — Boston River4:1
  • 09.08.2025Montevideo City Torque — Boston River1:1
  • 24.06.2025Boston River — Montevideo City Torque2:1
  • 09.02.2025Boston River — Montevideo City Torque0:0
  • 24.11.2023Boston River — Montevideo City Torque2:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Uruguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →