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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 13 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3)

Club Atlético Progreso — Defensor Sporting

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Club Atlético Progreso41%
Draw30%
Defensor Sporting29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Club Atlético Progreso to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.

Club Atlético Progreso are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 30%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • Club Atlético Progreso are 108 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Defensor Sporting: winless in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Club Atlético Progreso 1 win, Defensor Sporting 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Club Atlético Progreso — Defensor Sporting What is xG?1.3–1.1
Club Atlético Progreso not to lose71%
Defensor Sporting not to lose59%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Club Atlético Progreso
  • Club Atlético Progreso goals
  • Defensor Sporting goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 4′Lorenzo Cafaro · Defensor Sporting
  2. 28′Geanfranco Rodríguez · Defensor Sporting
  3. 40′Francisco Sorondo · Defensor Sporting
  4. 48′Erico Cuello · Defensor Sporting0:1
  5. 68′Agustín Ocampo · Club Atlético Progreso
  6. 74′Matteo Copelotti · Club Atlético Progreso
  7. 76′Gian Trasante · Club Atlético Progreso
  8. 84′Nicolás Wunsch · Defensor Sporting0:2
  9. 87′Guillermo De Los Santos · Defensor Sporting
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Mateo Caballero ↔ Francisco Sorondo · Defensor Sporting
  2. 46′Erico Cuello ↔ Lorenzo Cafaro · Defensor Sporting
  3. 46′Álex Perdomo ↔ Geanfranco Rodríguez · Defensor Sporting
  4. 54′Matteo Copelotti ↔ Maximiliano Juambeltz · Club Atlético Progreso
  5. 54′Facundo de León ↔ Ramiro Cristóbal · Club Atlético Progreso
  6. 54′Lucas Viana ↔ Ayrton Cougo · Club Atlético Progreso
  7. 67′Gary Silva ↔ Emiliano Álvarez · Club Atlético Progreso
  8. 78′Agustin Codagnone ↔ Gian Trasante · Club Atlético Progreso
  9. 80′Brian Montenegro ↔ Lautaro Navarro · Defensor Sporting
  10. 88′Tomás Pozzo ↔ Alan Torterolo · Defensor Sporting

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Club Atlético Progreso

  1. GKRenzo Bacchia
  2. DFEmiliano Álvarez67′
  3. DFAyrton Cougo54′
  4. DFMauro Martin
  5. DFGian Trasante78′
  6. DFHernan Carroso
  7. MFRamiro Cristóbal54′
  8. MFAgustin Pinheiro
  9. FWMaximiliano Juambeltz54′
  10. FWAgustín Ocampo
  11. FWNahuel López
Came on (5)
  1. FWFacundo de León36′
  2. FWMatteo Copelotti36′
  3. MFAgustin Codagnone12′
  4. FWGary Silva23′
  5. FWLucas Viana36′

Defensor Sporting

  1. GKKevin Dawson
  2. DFGuillermo De Los Santos
  3. DFLucas Agazzi
  4. DFAxel Frugone
  5. DFGeanfranco Rodríguez46′
  6. DFFrancisco Sorondo46′
  7. MFGermán Barrios
  8. MFNicolás Wunsch
  9. MFLorenzo Cafaro46′
  10. FWAlan Torterolo88′
  11. FWLautaro Navarro80′
Came on (5)
  1. MFTomás Pozzo2′
  2. FWBrian Montenegro10′
  3. DFMateo Caballero44′
  4. FWÁlex Perdomo44′
  5. MFErico Cuello44′

Form

Club Atlético Progreso

  • 25.10away · Montevideo Wanderers1:0
  • 17.10Juventud de las Piedras2:0
  • 11.10away · Club Atletico Peñarol1:1
  • 03.10away · Liverpool FC2:3
  • 26.09Racing2:1

Defensor Sporting

  • 24.10Racing3:3
  • 17.10away · Boston River0:1
  • 10.10Cerro2:3
  • 03.10away · Albion2:3
  • 28.09Danubio1:0

Head to head

  • 28.04.2026Defensor Sporting — Club Atlético Progreso1:0
  • 19.10.2025Club Atlético Progreso — Defensor Sporting2:3
  • 21.04.2025Defensor Sporting — Club Atlético Progreso1:2
  • 14.11.2024Defensor Sporting — Club Atlético Progreso3:0
  • 16.06.2024Defensor Sporting — Club Atlético Progreso1:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Uruguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →