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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 13 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3)

Danubio — Nacional (URU)

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Danubio24%
Draw28%
Nacional (URU)48%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Nacional (URU) to win (48%), came true.

Nacional (URU) are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Nacional (URU) are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Nacional (URU) are 119 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Danubio 1 win, Nacional (URU) 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Danubio — Nacional (URU) What is xG?1.0–1.4
Danubio not to lose52%
Nacional (URU) not to lose76%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Danubio
  • Danubio goals
  • Nacional (URU) goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 23′Maxi Gómez · Nacional (URU)0:1
  2. 24′Lucas Rodríguez · Nacional (URU)
  3. 38′Enzo Cabrera · Danubio1:1
  4. 43′Gonzalo Rodríguez · Danubio
  5. 58′Francisco Calvo · Nacional (URU)
  6. 69′Mateo Rinaldi · Danubio
  7. 73′Emiliano Ancheta · Nacional (URU)
  8. 84′Mauro Brasil · Danubio
  9. 87′Luciano González · Nacional (URU)
  10. 88′Maxi Gómez · Nacional (URU)1:2
  11. 93′Mauro Brasil · Danubio

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Danubio

  1. GKMauro Goicoechea
  2. DFMauro Brasil
  3. DFLeandro Sosa
  4. DFMateo Rinaldi
  5. DFGonzalo Rodríguez
  6. MFIván Rossi
  7. MFMateo Peralta
  8. MFJuan Millán
  9. FWBautista Tomatis
  10. FWEnzo Cabrera
  11. FWBautista Pereira

Nacional (URU)

  1. GKAlexis Arias
  2. DFFrancisco Calvo
  3. DFSebastián Coates
  4. DFCamilo Cándido
  5. DFEmiliano Ancheta
  6. MFGastón Martirena
  7. MFRubén Botta
  8. MFLucas Rodríguez
  9. MFSantiago Silva
  10. FWMaxi Gómez
  11. FWTiziano Correa

Form

Danubio

  • 25.10away · Deportivo Maldonado1:2
  • 18.10Central Español1:0
  • 09.10away · Montevideo City Torque0:1
  • 04.10Cerro Largo2:1
  • 28.09away · Defensor Sporting0:1

Nacional (URU)

  • 26.10Liverpool FC0:1
  • 20.10Deportivo Maldonado3:2
  • 12.10away · Central Español1:0
  • 06.10Montevideo City Torque2:0
  • 26.09away · Cerro Largo2:0

Head to head

  • 11.07.2026Danubio — Nacional (URU)0:0
  • 26.04.2026Nacional (URU) — Danubio1:2
  • 12.10.2025Danubio — Nacional (URU)0:0
  • 30.06.2025Nacional (URU) — Danubio3:2
  • 13.04.2025Nacional (URU) — Danubio2:0

Full record: 11 meetings →

Uruguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →