Brazilian Serie A, round 36 · Tuesday, 24 November, 02:00 (UTC+3)

Botafogo — São Paulo

Model prediction for 24 November

Botafogo48%

Draw28%

São Paulo24%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Botafogo are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

By the strength ratings Botafogo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Botafogo — No. 13, 39 pts; São Paulo — No. 10, 43 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Botafogo 1 win, São Paulo 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Botafogo — São Paulo What is xG?		1.5–1.0
Botafogo not to lose		76%
São Paulo not to lose		52%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Botafogo
Botafogo goals
São Paulo goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Botafogo	São Paulo
Goals scored per match	0.8	0.9
Goals conceded per match	1.6	1.3
xG per match	1.10	1.03
Opponents’ xG	1.22	1.06
Shots	14.8	13.5
On target	5.0	3.9
Corners	5.3	6.4
Cards	1.6	2.1
Possession, %	49	51

Averages per match: Botafogo — the last 10, São Paulo — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Botafogo

29.10away · Remo1:2
24.10away · Internacional0:3
18.10Chapecoense1:0
12.10away · Coritiba1:1
08.10Vasco da Gama1:2

São Paulo

29.10away · Bahia2:3
24.10away · Mirassol1:1
18.10Vasco da Gama1:0
11.10Vitória2:1
08.10away · Cruzeiro0:2

Head to head

23.05.2026São Paulo — Botafogo1:1
14.09.2025São Paulo — Botafogo1:0
17.04.2025Botafogo — São Paulo2:2
08.12.2024Botafogo — São Paulo2:1
26.09.2024São Paulo — Botafogo1:1

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9, Copa Sudamericana	Santos	34	12	11	11	50–49	+1	47
10, Copa Sudamericana	São Paulo	33	12	7	14	39–39	0	43
11, Copa Sudamericana	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40–51	-11	42
12	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39–48	-9	40
13	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45–53	-8	39
14	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38–42	-4	38

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

01:30
InternacionalVitóriapreliminary
592416
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
03:00
SantosGrêmiopreliminary
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →