Brazilian Serie A, round 36 · Tuesday, 24 November, 01:30 (UTC+3)

Internacional — Vitória

Model prediction for 24 November

Internacional59%

Draw24%

Vitória16%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Internacional are clear favourites: 59% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings Internacional are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Internacional are 122 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Internacional — No. 14, 38 pts; Vitória — No. 16, 38 pts.
Vitória: winless in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Internacional 2 wins, Vitória 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Internacional — Vitória What is xG?		1.8–0.9
Internacional not to lose		84%
Vitória not to lose		41%
No draw		76%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Internacional
Internacional goals
Vitória goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Internacional	Vitória
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.4	1.5
xG per match	1.12	1.10
Opponents’ xG	1.32	1.18
Shots	14.8	12.7
On target	4.8	4.4
Corners	6.4	3.8
Cards	3.9	2.0
Possession, %	43	46

Averages per match: Internacional — the last 10, Vitória — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Internacional

04.11Coritiba1:0
29.10away · Fluminense1:2
24.10Botafogo3:0
17.10away · Mirassol0:2
11.10away · Grêmio1:1

Vitória

31.10away · Coritiba0:2
24.10Athletico Paranaense1:1
20.10away · Corinthians1:1
11.10away · São Paulo1:2
08.10Chapecoense4:0

Head to head

23.05.2026Vitória — Internacional2:0
06.11.2025Vitória — Internacional1:0
12.07.2025Internacional — Vitória1:0
30.09.2024Internacional — Vitória3:1
16.06.2024Vitória — Internacional2:1

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
13	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45–53	-8	39
14	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38–42	-4	38
15	Vasco da Gama	32	10	8	14	40–49	-9	38
16	Vitória	33	10	8	15	35–48	-13	38
17, Relegation	Grêmio	33	9	10	14	37–44	-7	37

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

02:00
BotafogoSão Paulopreliminary
482824
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
03:00
SantosGrêmiopreliminary
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →