Brazilian Serie A, round 36 · Tuesday, 24 November, 03:00 (UTC+3)

Santos — Grêmio

Model prediction for 24 November

Santos63%

Draw22%

Grêmio15%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Santos are clear favourites: 63% against 15% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

By the strength ratings Santos are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Santos are 174 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Santos — No. 9, 47 pts; Grêmio — No. 17, 37 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Grêmio: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Santos 1 win, Grêmio 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Santos — Grêmio What is xG?		2.0–0.9
Santos not to lose		85%
Grêmio not to lose		37%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		54%
Both teams to score: no		46%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Santos
Santos goals
Grêmio goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Santos	Grêmio
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.5	1.2
xG per match	1.49	1.22
Opponents’ xG	1.20	1.28
Shots	16.8	13.4
On target	5.5	4.3
Corners	5.7	4.7
Cards	3.3	2.8
Possession, %	51	45

Averages per match: Santos — the last 10, Grêmio — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Santos

03.11away · RB Bragantino1:2
29.10Palmeiras0:0
25.10Bahia1:1
18.10away · Fluminense2:1
11.10away · Atlético-MG1:2

Grêmio

02.11Atlético-MG2:0
30.10Athletico Paranaense2:0
27.10away · Coritiba1:0
18.10Cruzeiro2:4
11.10Internacional1:1

Head to head

24.05.2026Grêmio — Santos3:2
02.10.2025Santos — Grêmio1:1
04.05.2025Grêmio — Santos1:0
20.08.2023Santos — Grêmio2:1
17.04.2023Grêmio — Santos1:0

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8, Copa Sudamericana	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44–39	+5	47
9, Copa Sudamericana	Santos	34	12	11	11	50–49	+1	47
10, Copa Sudamericana	São Paulo	33	12	7	14	39–39	0	43
16	Vitória	33	10	8	15	35–48	-13	38
17, Relegation	Grêmio	33	9	10	14	37–44	-7	37
18, Relegation	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	36–42	-6	36

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

01:30
InternacionalVitóriapreliminary
592416
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
02:00
BotafogoSão Paulopreliminary
482824
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →