Segunda Division, round 9 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · UD Almería Stadium
Almería — Leganés
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Almería to win (58%), came true.
Almería are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Almería are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Almería — Leganés What is xG? | 2.0–1.1 | |
| Almería not to lose | 82% | |
| Leganés not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Almería
- Almería goals
- Leganés goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 03.10Burgos CF2:1
- 27.09away · Mallorca1:0
- 20.09Celta Fortuna2:0
- 12.09away · Córdoba2:0
- 06.09Cádiz3:2
- 03.10away · Cádiz0:4
- 28.09Castellón0:2
- 20.09Granada3:2
- 13.09away · Tenerife0:2
- 04.09away · Las Palmas0:0
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Almería — Leganés2:1
- 22.11.2025Leganés — Almería0:3
- 15.01.2025Almería — Leganés2:3
- 29.05.2022Leganés — Almería2:2
- 29.10.2021Almería — Leganés1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Almería | 9 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Promotion | Eibar | 9 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Leganés | 9 | 3 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
Next matches
- LeganésCórdoba16 October · Segunda Division3928331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Real Sociedad BAlmería17 October · Segunda Division3027432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
Segunda Division on the same day
- 3227412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
- 4530241The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 372934XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →