Brazilian Serie B, round 37 · Monday, 9 November, 01:15 (UTC+3)

Ceará — América-MG

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Model prediction for 9 November

Ceará50%

Draw27%

América-MG24%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Ceará are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings Ceará are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Ceará are 158 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Ceará — No. 16, 43 pts; América-MG — No. 19, 26 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
Ceará: winless in 4; América-MG: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Ceará 2 wins, América-MG 1, 2 draws.
Days of rest before the match: Ceará 6, América-MG 8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ceará — América-MG What is xG?		1.5–1.0
Ceará not to lose		76%
América-MG not to lose		50%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Ceará
Ceará goals
América-MG goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Ceará	América-MG
Goals scored per match	1.1	0.7
Goals conceded per match	1.3	1.0
xG per match	1.26	1.12
Opponents’ xG	1.31	1.46
Shots	14.7	12.4
On target	4.2	3.8
Corners	4.4	4.3
Cards	2.5	2.2
Possession, %	49	47

Averages per match: Ceará — the last 10, América-MG — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Ceará

03.11away · Athletic Club MG1:2
28.10Goiás0:2
17.10Juventude2:2
13.10away · Botafogo SP0:1
09.10Criciúma1:0

América-MG

01.11away · Londrina3:1
27.10Cuiabá1:0
18.10Operário-PR1:0
13.10away · Criciúma0:1
08.10Fortaleza0:1

Head to head

18.07.2026América-MG — Ceará1:1
19.11.2024Ceará — América-MG1:0
29.07.2024América-MG — Ceará2:2
01.10.2022Ceará — América-MG1:2
09.06.2022América-MG — Ceará0:2

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
15	Náutico	36	12	10	14	40–46	-6	46
16	Ceará	36	11	10	15	38–46	-8	43
17, Relegation	Avaí	36	10	7	19	33–46	-13	37
18, Relegation	Londrina	36	8	8	20	45–54	-9	32
19, Relegation	América-MG	36	7	5	24	26–55	-29	26
20, Relegation	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21–78	-57	15

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

01:15
GoiásPonte Preta
84124
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →