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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3)

Cerro — Central Español

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Cerro47%
Draw29%
Central Español24%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Cerro to win (47%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 47% fails in about 53 matches out of 100 on average.

Cerro are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Cerro are 151 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Central Español: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 2 meetings: Cerro 1 win, Central Español 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cerro — Central Español What is xG?1.4–0.9
Cerro not to lose76%
Central Español not to lose53%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.541%
Total under 2.559%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Cerro
  • Cerro goals
  • Central Español goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 2′Facundo Sosa · Central Español
  2. 24′Fernando Camarda · Central Español0:1
  3. 40′Alejo Macelli · Cerro
  4. 58′Nahuel Arena · Cerro
  5. 62′Brahian Alemán · penalty · Cerro1:1
  6. 65′Julian Pou · Central Español
  7. 75′Jonathan Dellarossa · Central Español1:2
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Leonardo Pais ↔ Agustin Miranda · Cerro
  2. 46′Julian Pou ↔ Luciano Fernandez · Central Español
  3. 53′Ezequiel Forclaz ↔ Cristian Barros · Cerro
  4. 53′Bruno Morales ↔ Emiliano Rodríguez · Cerro
  5. 69′Jonathan Dellarossa ↔ Facundo Sosa · Central Español
  6. 78′Marcos Montiel ↔ César · Central Español
  7. 79′Alejandro Severo ↔ Damián Suárez · Cerro
  8. 83′Mariano Aguilera ↔ Fernando Camarda · Central Español
  9. 86′Rodrigo Mederos ↔ Gianni Rodríguez · Cerro

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Cerro

  1. GKYonatan Irrazábal
  2. DFDamián Suárez79′
  3. DFNahuel Arena
  4. DFGianni Rodríguez86′
  5. DFAlejo Macelli
  6. DFMauro Villar
  7. MFBrahian Alemán
  8. MFJairo Amaro
  9. MFAgustin Miranda46′
  10. FWEmiliano Rodríguez53′
  11. FWCristian Barros53′
Came on (5)
  1. MFEzequiel Forclaz37′
  2. MFRodrigo Mederos4′
  3. FWAlejandro Severo11′
  4. FWLeonardo Pais44′
  5. FWBruno Morales37′

Central Español

  1. GKFederico Pintado
  2. DFNacho Rodríguez
  3. DFAndrés Madruga
  4. DFLuciano Fernandez46′
  5. DFCésar78′
  6. DFJuan Ignacio Dupont
  7. MFGuillermo Gandolfo
  8. MFIsaac Mendez
  9. MFFranco Munoz
  10. FWFacundo Sosa69′
  11. FWFernando Camarda83′
Came on (4)
  1. FWJonathan Dellarossa21′
  2. MFMarcos Montiel12′
  3. FWMariano Aguilera7′
  4. DFJulian Pou44′

Form

Cerro

  • 25.10away · Montevideo City Torque1:3
  • 17.10Cerro Largo1:1
  • 10.10away · Defensor Sporting3:2
  • 04.10Montevideo Wanderers0:2
  • 27.09away · Juventud de las Piedras0:0

Central Español

  • 24.10Albion1:3
  • 18.10away · Danubio0:1
  • 12.10Nacional (URU)0:1
  • 04.10away · Deportivo Maldonado0:3
  • 27.09Liverpool FC1:2

Head to head

  • 24.05.2026Cerro — Central Español1:0
  • 26.04.2026Central Español — Cerro3:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Uruguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →