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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3)

Club Atletico Peñarol — Montevideo Wanderers

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Club Atletico Peñarol72%
Draw18%
Montevideo Wanderers10%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Club Atletico Peñarol to win (72%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 72% fails in about 28 matches out of 100 on average.

Club Atletico Peñarol are clear favourites: 72% against 10% for the opponent, draw 18%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 43%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Club Atletico Peñarol are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Club Atletico Peñarol are 289 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Montevideo Wanderers: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Club Atletico Peñarol 4 wins, Montevideo Wanderers 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Club Atletico Peñarol — Montevideo Wanderers What is xG?2.0–0.7
Club Atletico Peñarol not to lose90%
Montevideo Wanderers not to lose28%
No draw82%
Both teams to score: yes43%
Both teams to score: no57%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Club Atletico Peñarol
  • Club Atletico Peñarol goals
  • Montevideo Wanderers goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 25′Eric Remedi · Club Atletico Peñarol
  2. 54′Washington Aguerre · Club Atletico Peñarol
  3. 55′Nicolás Fernández · Club Atletico Peñarol
  4. 72′Facundo Labandeira · Montevideo Wanderers0:1
  5. 76′Gonzalo Freitas · Montevideo Wanderers
  6. 83′Ignacio Alegre · Club Atletico Peñarol
  7. 90′Luis Angulo · Club Atletico Peñarol1:1
  8. 91′Luis Angulo · Club Atletico Peñarol
  9. 96′Luis Angulo · Club Atletico Peñarol
Substitutions (8)
  1. 46′Matías Arezo ↔ Eric Remedi · Club Atletico Peñarol
  2. 46′Lucas Ferreira ↔ Germán Pezzella · Club Atletico Peñarol
  3. 62′Luis Angulo ↔ Abel Hernández · Club Atletico Peñarol
  4. 63′Jonás Luna ↔ Renzo Sánchez · Montevideo Wanderers
  5. 70′Lucas Hernández ↔ Maximiliano Olivera · Club Atletico Peñarol
  6. 79′Franco González ↔ Eduardo Darias · Club Atletico Peñarol
  7. 86′Tomas Hernandez ↔ Facundo Labandeira · Montevideo Wanderers
  8. 87′Jonathan Urretaviscaya ↔ Nicolás Queiroz · Montevideo Wanderers

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Club Atletico Peñarol

  1. GKWashington Aguerre
  2. DFGermán Pezzella46′
  3. DFMaximiliano Olivera70′
  4. DFNahuel Herrera
  5. DFIgnacio Alegre
  6. MFCristian Jaime
  7. MFNicolás Fernández
  8. MFEric Remedi46′
  9. MFJavier Cabrera
  10. MFEduardo Darias79′
  11. FWAbel Hernández62′
Came on (5)
  1. FWMatías Arezo44′
  2. FWLuis Angulo28′
  3. DFLucas Ferreira44′
  4. DFLucas Hernández20′
  5. MFFranco González11′

Montevideo Wanderers

  1. GKAgustin Buffa
  2. DFSantiago Benitez
  3. DFNahuel Furtado
  4. DFDarlin Mencía
  5. DFLeandro Zazpe
  6. MFGonzalo Freitas
  7. MFJosé Alberti
  8. MFNicolás Queiroz87′
  9. FWRenzo Sánchez63′
  10. FWFacundo Labandeira86′
  11. FWLuciano Cosentino
Came on (3)
  1. FWJonathan Urretaviscaya3′
  2. FWJonás Luna27′
  3. DFTomas Hernandez4′

Form

Club Atletico Peñarol

  • 24.10away · Juventud de las Piedras0:0
  • 19.10away · Liverpool FC0:1
  • 11.10Club Atlético Progreso1:1
  • 05.10away · Racing1:0
  • 01.10away · Montevideo City Torque1:1

Montevideo Wanderers

  • 25.10Club Atlético Progreso0:1
  • 17.10away · Racing0:3
  • 10.10Boston River1:3
  • 04.10away · Cerro2:0
  • 29.09Albion2:1

Head to head

  • 06.08.2026Club Atletico Peñarol — Montevideo Wanderers5:1
  • 27.04.2026Montevideo Wanderers — Club Atletico Peñarol1:0
  • 20.10.2025Club Atletico Peñarol — Montevideo Wanderers3:0
  • 22.06.2025Club Atletico Peñarol — Montevideo Wanderers2:0
  • 20.04.2025Montevideo Wanderers — Club Atletico Peñarol1:2

Full record: 12 meetings →

Uruguayan Primera on the same day

  • RacingCerro Largo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
  • CerroCentral Español
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →