Liga MX (Mexico), round 17 · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)
Chivas — Cruz Azul
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Chivas are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Chivas — No. 2, 29 pts; Cruz Azul — No. 3, 29 pts.
- Chivas: 3 wins in a row; Cruz Azul: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Chivas 0 wins, Cruz Azul 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chivas — Cruz Azul What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Chivas not to lose | 72% | |
| Cruz Azul not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Chivas
- Chivas goals
- Cruz Azul goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Chivas | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.35 | 1.93 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| Shots | 14.1 | 17.8 |
| On target | 5.2 | 6.9 |
| Corners | 6.9 | 5.6 |
| Cards | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 57 | 54 |
Form
- 02.11León2:1
- 26.10away · Querétaro3:1
- 22.10away · Pachuca2:1
- 18.10FC Juárez5:0
- 12.10away · Pumas3:3
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Chivas — Cruz Azul1:2
- 14.05.2026Cruz Azul — Chivas2:2
- 22.02.2026Cruz Azul — Chivas2:1
- 01.12.2025Cruz Azul — Chivas3:2
- 28.11.2025Chivas — Cruz Azul0:0
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- QuerétaroNecaxapreliminary4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →