Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 16:45 (UTC+3)

Cracovia — Jagiellonia Białystok

Model prediction for 21 November

Cracovia45%

Draw28%

Jagiellonia Białystok28%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Cracovia are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 28%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings Cracovia are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Cracovia — No. 13, 12 pts; Jagiellonia Białystok — No. 9, 18 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Cracovia 2 wins, Jagiellonia Białystok 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cracovia — Jagiellonia Białystok What is xG?		1.6–1.3
Cracovia not to lose		72%
Jagiellonia Białystok not to lose		55%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Cracovia
Cracovia goals
Jagiellonia Białystok goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Cracovia	Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.9	1.7
xG per match	1.74	1.40
Opponents’ xG	1.54	1.79
Shots	15.3	12.3
On target	4.7	3.5
Corners	6.0	3.4
Cards	1.8	1.5
Possession, %	48	53

Averages per match: Cracovia — the last 10, Jagiellonia Białystok — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Cracovia

30.10Motor Lublin1:2
24.10away · Piast Gliwice1:3
17.10Legia Warszawa1:1
10.10Zagłębie Lubin3:1
19.09away · GKS Katowice2:3

Jagiellonia Białystok

31.10away · Wieczysta Kraków3:1
25.10Wisła Płock1:0
22.10Anderlecht0:3
18.10away · Zagłębie Lubin0:1
15.10Ararat Armenia3:1

Head to head

14.02.2026Cracovia — Jagiellonia Białystok0:0
10.08.2025Jagiellonia Białystok — Cracovia5:2
23.02.2025Cracovia — Jagiellonia Białystok2:2
17.08.2024Jagiellonia Białystok — Cracovia2:4
14.04.2024Jagiellonia Białystok — Cracovia1:3

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8	Wisła Kraków	13	6	3	4	20–18	+2	21
9	Jagiellonia Białystok	12	6	0	6	17–18	-1	18
10	Korona Kielce	13	5	3	5	14–19	-5	18
12	Wisła Płock	12	4	3	5	12–18	-6	15
13	Cracovia	13	3	3	7	15–21	-6	12
14	Widzew Łódź	13	1	8	4	17–19	-2	11

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ekstraklasa on the same day

19:30
Zagłębie LubinGórnik Zabrzepreliminary
253145
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
22:15
Radomiak RadomWisła Krakówpreliminary
282844
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →