Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Zagłębie Lubin — Górnik Zabrze
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Górnik Zabrze are slightly stronger: 45% against 25%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 2.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Górnik Zabrze are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Zagłębie Lubin — No. 5, 22 pts; Górnik Zabrze — No. 2, 28 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Górnik Zabrze: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Zagłębie Lubin 4 wins, Górnik Zabrze 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Zagłębie Lubin — Górnik Zabrze What is xG? | 1.0–1.4 | |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to lose | 55% | |
| Górnik Zabrze not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Zagłębie Lubin | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.46 | 1.91 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.54 | 0.70 |
| Shots | 13.2 | 16.4 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 3.1 | 5.6 |
| Cards | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 40 | 48 |
Form
- 02.11Korona Kielce1:0
- 23.10away · Motor Lublin2:2
- 18.10Jagiellonia Białystok1:0
- 10.10away · Cracovia1:3
- 20.09Wisła Płock0:2
- 30.10Legia Warszawa0:0
- 23.10away · Widzew Łódź1:1
- 18.10Piast Gliwice1:1
- 10.10away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:1
- 19.09away · Motor Lublin0:0
Head to head
- 09.05.2026Górnik Zabrze — Zagłębie Lubin0:2
- 07.11.2025Zagłębie Lubin — Górnik Zabrze2:0
- 11.04.2025Zagłębie Lubin — Górnik Zabrze2:1
- 05.10.2024Górnik Zabrze — Zagłębie Lubin0:1
- 08.04.2024Zagłębie Lubin — Górnik Zabrze1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Lech Poznań | 12 | 10 | +21 | 31 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Górnik Zabrze | 13 | 8 | +10 | 28 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Legia Warszawa | 13 | 6 | +12 | 24 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 12 | 7 | +8 | 24 |
| 5 | Zagłębie Lubin | 13 | 6 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 7 | +6 | 21 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- CracoviaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary4528281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Radomiak RadomWisła Krakówpreliminary2828442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →