Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 22:15 (UTC+3)

Radomiak Radom — Wisła Kraków

Model prediction for 21 November

Radomiak Radom28%

Draw28%

Wisła Kraków44%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Wisła Kraków are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated Wisła Kraków higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Radomiak Radom — No. 15, 11 pts; Wisła Kraków — No. 8, 21 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Radomiak Radom 2 wins, Wisła Kraków 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Radomiak Radom — Wisła Kraków What is xG?		1.3–1.7
Radomiak Radom not to lose		56%
Wisła Kraków not to lose		72%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		62%
Both teams to score: no		38%
Total over 2.5		57%
Total under 2.5		43%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom goals
Wisła Kraków goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Radomiak Radom	Wisła Kraków
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded per match	2.2	1.2
xG per match	1.47	1.54
Opponents’ xG	2.02	1.20
Shots	15.6	17.6
On target	4.4	5.3
Corners	7.3	4.5
Cards	1.3	1.8
Possession, %	49	53

Averages per match: Radomiak Radom — the last 10, Wisła Kraków — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Radomiak Radom

02.11Śląsk Wrocław3:1
24.10away · Pogoń Szczecin3:4
19.10away · Wisła Płock0:1
12.10Motor Lublin2:3
20.09away · Lech Poznań1:5

Wisła Kraków

31.10away · Lech Poznań1:3
24.10Raków Częstochowa2:1
16.10away · Widzew Łódź0:0
11.10away · Legia Warszawa0:2
18.09Śląsk Wrocław2:1

Head to head

15.05.2022Radomiak Radom — Wisła Kraków4:2
26.11.2021Wisła Kraków — Radomiak Radom0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
7	Piast Gliwice	13	6	3	4	24–20	+4	21
8	Wisła Kraków	13	6	3	4	20–18	+2	21
9	Jagiellonia Białystok	12	6	0	6	17–18	-1	18
14	Widzew Łódź	13	1	8	4	17–19	-2	11
15	Radomiak Radom	13	3	2	8	15–29	-14	11
16, Relegation	Śląsk Wrocław	13	2	3	8	17–25	-8	9

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ekstraklasa on the same day

16:45
CracoviaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary
452828
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
19:30
Zagłębie LubinGórnik Zabrzepreliminary
253145
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →