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Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Departamental Libertad

Deportivo Pasto — CD Jaguares

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Deportivo Pasto58%
Draw25%
CD Jaguares18%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Deportivo Pasto to win (58%), came true.

Deportivo Pasto are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Deportivo Pasto are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Deportivo Pasto are 130 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Pasto 2 wins, CD Jaguares 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto — CD Jaguares What is xG?1.8–0.9
Deportivo Pasto not to lose82%
CD Jaguares not to lose42%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Deportivo Pasto
  • Deportivo Pasto goals
  • CD Jaguares goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 6′Patrick Preciado · Deportivo Pasto
  2. 55′Harrinson Mancilla · Deportivo Pasto
  3. 58′Jose Yanez · CD Jaguares
  4. 67′John Méndez · Deportivo Pasto
  5. 69′Enrique Serje · Deportivo Pasto
  6. 71′Enrique Serje · Deportivo Pasto1:0
  7. 81′Mateo Garavito · Deportivo Pasto
  8. 93′Kevin Santacruz · Deportivo Pasto
  9. 95′John Méndez · Deportivo Pasto2:0
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Johar Mejía ↔ Wilfrido De La Rosa · CD Jaguares
  2. 46′Jorge Obregón ↔ Patrick Preciado · Deportivo Pasto
  3. 62′Royscer Colpa ↔ Jose Yanez · CD Jaguares
  4. 62′John Méndez ↔ Harrinson Mancilla · Deportivo Pasto
  5. 63′Matías Pisano ↔ Mayer Gil · Deportivo Pasto
  6. 74′Esteban Beltrán ↔ Cristian Álvarez · CD Jaguares
  7. 74′Duván Rodríguez ↔ Darwin López · CD Jaguares
  8. 74′Diego Zuluaga ↔ Faber Gil · CD Jaguares
  9. 85′Kevin Santacruz ↔ Joider Micolta · Deportivo Pasto
  10. 94′Santiago Jiménez ↔ Franco Leys · Deportivo Pasto

Match statistics

Deportivo PastoCD Jaguares
  • 1.50Expected goals (xG)0.20
  • 48Possession, %52
  • 21Shots8
  • 6On target4
  • 1Big chances0
  • 9Corners0
  • 14Fouls10
  • 0Offsides3
  • 6Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Deportivo Pasto

  1. GKGeovanni Banguera7.8
  2. DFMateo Garavito7.7
  3. DFFáiner Torijano (C)7.2
  4. DFJoyce Rios7.5
  5. DFNicolás Gil7.2
  6. MFFranco Leys89′7.9
  7. MFHarrinson Mancilla62′7.5
  8. MFJoider Micolta85′7.6
  9. MFEnrique Serje7.8
  10. FWPatrick Preciado45′6.5
  11. FWMayer Gil63′7.2
Came on (5)
  1. MFMatías Pisano27′6.2
  2. DFSantiago Jiménez1′
  3. FWJorge Obregón45′6.9
  4. FWJohn Méndez28′7.5
  5. MFKevin Santacruz5′

CD Jaguares

  1. GKDiego Martínez6.7
  2. DFJerson Malagón6.7
  3. DFLuis Jiménez6.6
  4. DFJonathan Lovera6.3
  5. DFJuan Arcila6.2
  6. MFRafael Bustamante (C)6.6
  7. MFCristian Álvarez74′6.3
  8. MFJose Yanez62′6.4
  9. FWDarwin López74′5.8
  10. FWWilfrido De La Rosa45′5.9
  11. FWFaber Gil74′6.5
Came on (5)
  1. FWJohar Mejía45′5.9
  2. MFRoyscer Colpa28′6.5
  3. FWEsteban Beltrán16′6.1
  4. FWDuván Rodríguez16′6.0
  5. MFDiego Zuluaga16′6.0

Form

Deportivo Pasto

  • 31.10away · Bucaramanga1:2
  • 26.10away · Tolima1:0
  • 23.10away · Atlético Nacional0:3
  • 20.10Alianza FC0:1
  • 04.10Fortaleza FC0:0

CD Jaguares

  • 31.10away · Deportivo Pereira0:1
  • 27.10Llaneros FC1:0
  • 22.10away · Santa Fe1:2
  • 18.10away · Millonarios1:4
  • 12.10Tolima3:2

Head to head

  • 18.04.2026CD Jaguares — Deportivo Pasto2:3
  • 04.08.2024CD Jaguares — Deportivo Pasto0:0
  • 06.02.2024Deportivo Pasto — CD Jaguares1:1
  • 21.10.2023CD Jaguares — Deportivo Pasto1:0
  • 09.09.2023Deportivo Pasto — CD Jaguares1:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Clausura)
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
17Chicó FC1744913–28-1516
18Deportivo Pasto17431013–24-1115
19CD Jaguares17341017–31-1413
20Fortaleza FC1719717–25-812

Season 2026 (Clausura)

Full table

Next matches

  • Santa FeDeportivo Pasto8 November · Colombian Primera A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
  • CD JaguaresBucaramanga9 November · Colombian Primera A
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →