Russian Premier League, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, 14:00 (UTC+3)

Dinamo Moscow — FC Krasnodar

Model prediction for 22 November

Dinamo Moscow44%

Draw30%

FC Krasnodar26%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Dinamo Moscow are slightly stronger: 44% against 26%, draw 30%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings Dinamo Moscow are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Dinamo Moscow are 63 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Dinamo Moscow — No. 2, 28 pts; FC Krasnodar — No. 5, 23 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Dinamo Moscow 1 win, FC Krasnodar 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dinamo Moscow — FC Krasnodar What is xG?		1.5–1.2
Dinamo Moscow not to lose		74%
FC Krasnodar not to lose		56%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow goals
FC Krasnodar goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Dinamo Moscow	FC Krasnodar
Goals scored per match	1.7	1.3
Goals conceded per match	0.9	1.2
xG per match	2.15	1.15
Opponents’ xG	0.86	0.99
Shots	16.3	14.5
On target	6.1	5.3
Corners	4.7	3.7
Cards	1.8	2.5
Possession, %	58	59

Averages per match: Dinamo Moscow — the last 10, FC Krasnodar — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Dinamo Moscow

31.10FK Akhmat2:0
27.10away · FC Krasnodar1:2
24.10away · Akron Togliatti1:3
18.10CSKA Moscow3:1
14.10away · FK Akhmat2:1

FC Krasnodar

31.10away · Rodina1:2
27.10Dinamo Moscow2:1
24.10Baltika1:1
17.10away · Lokomotiv Moscow3:3
13.10Fakel0:2

Head to head

27.10.2026FC Krasnodar — Dinamo Moscow2:1
19.08.2026Dinamo Moscow — FC Krasnodar0:1
11.05.2026Dinamo Moscow — FC Krasnodar2:1
07.05.2026FC Krasnodar — Dinamo Moscow0:0
08.04.2026Dinamo Moscow — FC Krasnodar0:0

Full record: 26 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1	Zenit St. Petersburg	13	10	0	3	30–13	+17	30
2	Dinamo Moscow	13	9	1	3	21–12	+9	28
3	Spartak Moscow	13	8	2	3	25–10	+15	26
4	CSKA Moscow	13	7	5	1	21–12	+9	26
5	FC Krasnodar	13	6	5	2	21–16	+5	23
6	FC Rostov	13	5	3	5	16–17	-1	18

Season 2026/27

Full table

Russian Premier League on the same day

16:30
Dynamo MakhachkalaSpartak Moscowpreliminary
233046
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
19:00
RodinaLokomotiv Moscowpreliminary
192753
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →