Russian Premier League, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Rodina — Lokomotiv Moscow
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lokomotiv Moscow are clear favourites: 53% against 19% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lokomotiv Moscow are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Lokomotiv Moscow higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Rodina — No. 13, 12 pts; Lokomotiv Moscow — No. 14, 11 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Lokomotiv Moscow: 3 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rodina — Lokomotiv Moscow What is xG? | 1.2–1.9 | |
| Rodina not to lose | 47% | |
| Lokomotiv Moscow not to lose | 81% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Rodina
- Rodina goals
- Lokomotiv Moscow goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Rodina | Lokomotiv Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.08 | 1.31 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.03 | 2.02 |
| Shots | 10.5 | 11.5 |
| On target | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Corners | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Cards | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 48 |
Form
- 31.10FC Krasnodar2:1
- 28.10away · FC Orenburg1:2
- 24.10away · Fakel1:0
- 19.10FC Orenburg2:2
- 15.10Spartak Moscow2:4
- 01.11Spartak Moscow0:4
- 29.10away · CSKA Moscow1:3
- 25.10away · FC Rostov0:2
- 17.10FC Krasnodar3:3
- 13.10Akron Togliatti1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Akron Togliatti | 13 | 2 | -7 | 12 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Rodina | 13 | 3 | -13 | 12 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Lokomotiv Moscow | 13 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 15, Relegation | FK Akhmat | 13 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- Dinamo MoscowFC Krasnodarpreliminary4430261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- Dynamo MakhachkalaSpartak Moscowpreliminary2330462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →