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Russian Premier League, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Dynamo Makhachkala — Spartak Moscow

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Model prediction for 22 November

Dynamo Makhachkala23%
Draw30%
Spartak Moscow46%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Spartak Moscow are clear favourites: 46% against 23% for the opponent, draw 30%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Spartak Moscow are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Spartak Moscow are 190 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Dynamo Makhachkala — No. 11, 13 pts; Spartak Moscow — No. 3, 26 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
  • Dynamo Makhachkala: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Dynamo Makhachkala 1 win, Spartak Moscow 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dynamo Makhachkala — Spartak Moscow What is xG?1.0–1.5
Dynamo Makhachkala not to lose54%
Spartak Moscow not to lose77%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Dynamo Makhachkala
  • Dynamo Makhachkala goals
  • Spartak Moscow goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatDynamo MakhachkalaSpartak Moscow
Goals scored per match1.11.9
Goals conceded per match2.10.7
xG per match1.441.91
Opponents’ xG1.601.13
Shots11.616.2
On target3.46.1
Corners4.15.9
Cards2.72.3
Possession, %4761

Averages per match: Dynamo Makhachkala — the last 10, Spartak Moscow — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Dynamo Makhachkala

  • 01.11FC Rostov0:3
  • 29.10away · Krylya Sovetov Samara0:2
  • 25.10away · Zenit St. Petersburg0:2
  • 17.10Akron Togliatti1:1
  • 14.10Zenit St. Petersburg1:2

Spartak Moscow

  • 01.11away · Lokomotiv Moscow4:0
  • 28.10Rubin Kazan1:0
  • 25.10away · CSKA Moscow0:2
  • 18.10Rubin Kazan4:0
  • 15.10away · Rodina4:2

Head to head

  • 17.05.2026Dynamo Makhachkala — Spartak Moscow0:0
  • 21.10.2025Dynamo Makhachkala — Spartak Moscow1:3
  • 12.08.2025Spartak Moscow — Dynamo Makhachkala1:1
  • 19.07.2025Spartak Moscow — Dynamo Makhachkala1:0
  • 11.04.2025Spartak Moscow — Dynamo Makhachkala1:2

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2Dinamo Moscow1391321–12+928
3Spartak Moscow1382325–10+1526
4CSKA Moscow1375121–12+926
10Rubin Kazan1336413–18-515
11Dynamo Makhachkala1341816–26-1013
12Akron Togliatti1326516–23-712

Season 2026/27

Full table

Russian Premier League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →