2. Bundesliga, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Energie Cottbus — Hertha BSC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Hertha BSC are clear favourites: 54% against 22% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 71%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hertha BSC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Hertha BSC are 92 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Energie Cottbus — No. 14, 10 pts; Hertha BSC — No. 1, 28 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
- Energie Cottbus: winless in 5; Hertha BSC: 3 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Energie Cottbus — Hertha BSC What is xG? | 1.5–2.2 | |
| Energie Cottbus not to lose | 46% | |
| Hertha BSC not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 29% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 70% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 30% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Energie Cottbus
- Energie Cottbus goals
- Hertha BSC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Energie Cottbus | Hertha BSC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.53 | 2.61 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.14 | 1.09 |
| Shots | 15.8 | 21.4 |
| On target | 5.5 | 6.9 |
| Corners | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| Cards | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 55 |
Form
- 30.10Bochum1:2
- 24.10away · FC Heidenheim1:1
- 16.101. FC Nürnberg1:1
- 10.10away · Darmstadt1:3
- 20.09St. Pauli1:1
- 31.10away · Kaiserslautern3:0
- 28.10away · SSV Jeddeloh2:0
- 24.10Arminia Bielefeld1:0
- 16.10away · Holstein Kiel0:0
- 11.10Greuther Fürth2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Hertha BSC | 10 | 9 | +15 | 28 |
| 2, Promotion | 1. FC Nürnberg | 10 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3 | -8 | 11 |
| 14 | Energie Cottbus | 10 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 10 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- KaiserslauternDynamo Dresdenpreliminary4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Karlsruher SCVfL Osnabrückpreliminary4227321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →