2. Bundesliga, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, 15:30 (UTC+3)

Karlsruher SC — VfL Osnabrück

Model prediction for 22 November

Karlsruher SC42%

Draw27%

VfL Osnabrück32%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Karlsruher SC are slightly stronger: 42% against 32%, draw 27%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 65%.

Why

By the strength ratings Karlsruher SC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Karlsruher SC are 114 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Karlsruher SC — No. 13, 11 pts; VfL Osnabrück — No. 10, 11 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Karlsruher SC 2 wins, VfL Osnabrück 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karlsruher SC — VfL Osnabrück What is xG?		1.7–1.5
Karlsruher SC not to lose		68%
VfL Osnabrück not to lose		58%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		65%
Both teams to score: no		35%
Total over 2.5		59%
Total under 2.5		41%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC goals
VfL Osnabrück goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Karlsruher SC	VfL Osnabrück
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded per match	2.3	1.7
xG per match	1.26	1.50
Opponents’ xG	1.44	1.79
Shots	14.9	11.3
On target	5.5	4.5
Corners	5.8	2.7
Cards	1.3	1.9
Possession, %	49	41

Averages per match: Karlsruher SC — the last 10, VfL Osnabrück — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Karlsruher SC

31.10FC Heidenheim2:1
27.10away · Borussia Mönchengladbach0:2
24.10away · Magdeburg1:6
18.10Darmstadt4:0
11.10away · St. Pauli0:2

VfL Osnabrück

31.10away · Wolfsburg0:2
25.10Greuther Fürth3:0
18.10away · Arminia Bielefeld1:2
10.10Dynamo Dresden1:1
19.09away · Holstein Kiel1:1

Head to head

19.01.2024Karlsruher SC — VfL Osnabrück2:1
29.07.2023VfL Osnabrück — Karlsruher SC2:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Greuther Fürth	10	3	3	4	13–16	-3	12
10	VfL Osnabrück	10	3	2	5	14–17	-3	11
11	Bochum	10	3	2	5	8–11	-3	11
12	Hannover 96	10	3	2	5	10–16	-6	11
13	Karlsruher SC	10	3	2	5	13–21	-8	11
14	Energie Cottbus	10	2	4	4	18–20	-2	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

2. Bundesliga on the same day

15:30
Energie CottbusHertha BSCpreliminary
222454
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.7
15:30
KaiserslauternDynamo Dresdenpreliminary
462826
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →