Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 12 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Excelsior — Go Ahead Eagles
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Go Ahead Eagles are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Go Ahead Eagles higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Excelsior — No. 15, 11 pts; Go Ahead Eagles — No. 10, 14 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Excelsior: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 4 meetings: Excelsior 0 wins, Go Ahead Eagles 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Excelsior — Go Ahead Eagles What is xG? | 1.5–1.9 | |
| Excelsior not to lose | 53% | |
| Go Ahead Eagles not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Excelsior | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| xG per match | 0.96 | 1.82 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.18 | 1.61 |
| Shots | 8.9 | 14.8 |
| On target | 2.9 | 5.4 |
| Corners | 3.0 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Possession, % | 41 | 52 |
Form
- 01.11FC Twente0:9
- 25.10away · Fortuna Sittard0:1
- 16.10away · SC Heerenveen0:4
- 11.10FC Groningen1:5
- 19.09away · Ajax2:2
- 31.10away · Cambuur0:4
- 23.10Telstar3:2
- 18.10away · PEC Zwolle1:4
- 10.10Sparta Rotterdam3:3
- 20.09away · NEC Nijmegen1:1
Head to head
- 01.03.2026Excelsior — Go Ahead Eagles0:1
- 26.10.2025Go Ahead Eagles — Excelsior2:0
- 30.03.2024Go Ahead Eagles — Excelsior3:0
- 16.12.2023Excelsior — Go Ahead Eagles1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cambuur | 11 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3 | -12 | 11 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Telstar | 11 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- 4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →