Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 12 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Fortuna Sittard — Telstar
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Fortuna Sittard are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 69%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Fortuna Sittard are 127 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Fortuna Sittard — No. 6, 19 pts; Telstar — No. 16, 9 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Fortuna Sittard: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 1 win, Telstar 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard — Telstar What is xG? | 1.7–1.6 | |
| Fortuna Sittard not to lose | 70% | |
| Telstar not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 31% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Fortuna Sittard | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| xG per match | 0.89 | 1.37 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.23 | 2.07 |
| Shots | 10.0 | 12.7 |
| On target | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Corners | 2.8 | 4.5 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Possession, % | 37 | 47 |
Form
- 31.10away · Feyenoord1:1
- 25.10Excelsior1:0
- 18.10away · NEC Nijmegen2:2
- 10.10FC Twente1:1
- 19.09away · Willem II1:0
- 01.11FC Utrecht4:2
- 23.10away · Go Ahead Eagles2:3
- 17.10Feyenoord3:4
- 11.10ADO Den Haag2:2
- 20.09away · AZ Alkmaar0:1
Head to head
- 08.03.2026Fortuna Sittard — Telstar1:4
- 14.09.2025Telstar — Fortuna Sittard1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 11 | 5 | +6 | 18 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3 | -12 | 11 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Telstar | 11 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 17, Relegation | ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1 | -11 | 6 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- 4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 2627472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →