Russian Premier League, round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, 14:00 (UTC+3)

Fakel — Dinamo Moscow

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Model prediction for 7 November

Fakel22%

Draw30%

Dinamo Moscow48%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Dinamo Moscow are clear favourites: 48% against 22% for the opponent, draw 30%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

By the strength ratings Dinamo Moscow are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Dinamo Moscow are 236 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Fakel — No. 16, 6 pts; Dinamo Moscow — No. 2, 28 pts. A gap of 22 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Fakel 0 wins, Dinamo Moscow 2, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fakel — Dinamo Moscow What is xG?		0.9–1.6
Fakel not to lose		52%
Dinamo Moscow not to lose		78%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Dinamo Moscow to win” at 48%, the market at 59%.

Fakel to winModel22%odds 4.55Market18%odds 5.59
DrawModel30%odds 3.33Market24%odds 4.24
Dinamo Moscow to winModel48%odds 2.08Market59%odds 1.71
Total over 2.5Model44%odds 2.27Market52%odds 1.94
Total under 2.5Model56%odds 1.79Market48%odds 2.06

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Fakel
Fakel goals
Dinamo Moscow goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Fakel	Dinamo Moscow
Goals scored per match	0.5	1.7
Goals conceded per match	1.6	0.9
xG per match	0.75	2.15
Opponents’ xG	1.66	0.86
Shots	9.8	16.3
On target	2.2	6.1
Corners	3.8	4.7
Cards	2.3	1.8
Possession, %	46	58

Averages per match: Fakel — the last 10, Dinamo Moscow — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Fakel

31.10away · Rubin Kazan0:1
27.10FK Akhmat0:0
24.10Rodina0:1
17.10away · Krylya Sovetov Samara2:1
13.10away · FC Krasnodar2:0

Dinamo Moscow

31.10FK Akhmat2:0
27.10away · FC Krasnodar1:2
24.10away · Akron Togliatti1:3
18.10CSKA Moscow3:1
14.10away · FK Akhmat2:1

Head to head

05.08.2026Fakel — Dinamo Moscow0:1
24.11.2024Fakel — Dinamo Moscow1:1
20.07.2024Dinamo Moscow — Fakel3:1
10.12.2023Fakel — Dinamo Moscow1:1
08.10.2023Dinamo Moscow — Fakel0:0

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1	Zenit St. Petersburg	13	10	0	3	30–13	+17	30
2	Dinamo Moscow	13	9	1	3	21–12	+9	28
3	Spartak Moscow	13	8	2	3	25–10	+15	26
15, Relegation	FK Akhmat	13	2	5	6	15–19	-4	11
16, Relegation	Fakel	13	1	3	9	8–21	-13	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Russian Premier League on the same day

16:30
FK AkhmatRodina
562718
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
19:30
FC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
482924
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →