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Russian Premier League, round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)

FC Krasnodar — CSKA Moscow

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Model prediction for 7 November

FC Krasnodar48%
Draw29%
CSKA Moscow24%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

FC Krasnodar are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings FC Krasnodar are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • FC Krasnodar are 113 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: FC Krasnodar — No. 5, 23 pts; CSKA Moscow — No. 4, 26 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: FC Krasnodar 2 wins, CSKA Moscow 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: FC Krasnodar — CSKA Moscow What is xG?1.6–1.1
FC Krasnodar not to lose76%
CSKA Moscow not to lose52%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap FC Krasnodar
  • FC Krasnodar goals
  • CSKA Moscow goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatFC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
Goals scored per match1.31.8
Goals conceded per match1.21.0
xG per match1.151.75
Opponents’ xG0.991.56
Shots14.516.0
On target5.35.9
Corners3.74.9
Cards2.52.7
Possession, %5949

Averages per match: FC Krasnodar — the last 10, CSKA Moscow — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

FC Krasnodar

  • 31.10away · Rodina1:2
  • 27.10Dinamo Moscow2:1
  • 24.10Baltika1:1
  • 17.10away · Lokomotiv Moscow3:3
  • 13.10Fakel0:2

CSKA Moscow

  • 01.11away · FC Orenburg0:0
  • 29.10Lokomotiv Moscow3:1
  • 25.10Spartak Moscow2:0
  • 18.10away · Dinamo Moscow1:3
  • 14.10FC Rostov4:0

Head to head

  • 17.03.2026FC Krasnodar — CSKA Moscow4:0
  • 04.03.2026CSKA Moscow — FC Krasnodar3:1
  • 07.12.2025FC Krasnodar — CSKA Moscow3:2
  • 31.08.2025CSKA Moscow — FC Krasnodar1:1
  • 10.05.2025CSKA Moscow — FC Krasnodar1:0

Full record: 24 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3Spartak Moscow1382325–10+1526
4CSKA Moscow1375121–12+926
5FC Krasnodar1365221–16+523
6FC Rostov1353516–17-118

Season 2026/27

Full table

Russian Premier League on the same day

  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →