Russian Premier League, round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, 16:30 (UTC+3)

FK Akhmat — Rodina

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Model prediction for 7 November

FK Akhmat56%

Draw27%

Rodina18%

Model estimate at 08:25 (UTC+3)

In short

FK Akhmat are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

By the strength ratings FK Akhmat are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
FK Akhmat are 89 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: FK Akhmat — No. 15, 11 pts; Rodina — No. 13, 12 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
FK Akhmat: winless in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: FK Akhmat — Rodina What is xG?		1.8–1.0
FK Akhmat not to lose		82%
Rodina not to lose		44%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		55%
Both teams to score: no		45%
Total over 2.5		53%
Total under 2.5		47%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Total over 2.5” at 53%, the market at 58%.

FK Akhmat to winModel56%odds 1.79Market55%odds 1.81
DrawModel27%odds 3.70Market23%odds 4.41
Rodina to winModel18%odds 5.56Market22%odds 4.54
Total over 2.5Model53%odds 1.89Market58%odds 1.71
Total under 2.5Model47%odds 2.13Market42%odds 2.41
Both teams to score: yesModel55%odds 1.82Market58%odds 1.73
Both teams to score: noModel45%odds 2.22Market42%odds 2.36

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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Handicap FK Akhmat
FK Akhmat goals
Rodina goals
Corners and cards
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	FK Akhmat	Rodina
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.6	2.0
xG per match	1.01	1.08
Opponents’ xG	1.27	2.03
Shots	13.4	10.5
On target	3.5	3.1
Corners	4.6	3.6
Cards	2.9	3.2
Possession, %	50	46

Averages per match: FK Akhmat — the last 10, Rodina — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

FK Akhmat

31.10away · Dinamo Moscow0:2
27.10away · Fakel0:0
23.10FC Orenburg0:1
18.10away · Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
14.10Dinamo Moscow1:2

Rodina

31.10FC Krasnodar2:1
28.10away · FC Orenburg1:2
24.10away · Fakel1:0
19.10FC Orenburg2:2
15.10Spartak Moscow2:4

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
12	Akron Togliatti	13	2	6	5	16–23	-7	12
13, Relegation play-off	Rodina	13	3	3	7	15–28	-13	12
14, Relegation play-off	Lokomotiv Moscow	13	2	5	6	16–20	-4	11
15, Relegation	FK Akhmat	13	2	5	6	15–19	-4	11
16, Relegation	Fakel	13	1	3	9	8–21	-13	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Russian Premier League on the same day

14:00
FakelDinamo Moscow
223048
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
19:30
FC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
482924
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →