Peruvian Liga 1 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Melgar — ADC Juan Pablo II
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Melgar are clear favourites: 77% against 8% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Melgar are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Melgar are 189 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: Melgar 0 wins, ADC Juan Pablo II 0, 3 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Melgar 6, ADC Juan Pablo II 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Melgar — ADC Juan Pablo II What is xG? | 2.4–0.8 | |
| Melgar not to lose | 92% | |
| ADC Juan Pablo II not to lose | 23% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Melgar | ADC Juan Pablo II |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 16.7 | 12.7 |
| On target | 6.3 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 49 |
Form
- 02.11away · Sport Huancayo0:2
- 30.10Comerciantes Unidos1:1
- 23.10away · UTC Cajamarca2:1
- 18.10Deportivo Garcilaso4:2
- 11.10away · Universitario2:2
- 31.10away · Alianza Atlético0:1
- 27.10Sport Huancayo2:0
- 25.10away · Universitario0:3
- 17.10Sport Boys2:0
- 10.10away · Comerciantes Unidos1:1
Head to head
- 22.05.2026ADC Juan Pablo II — Melgar1:1
- 05.08.2025Melgar — ADC Juan Pablo II1:1
- 02.07.2025ADC Juan Pablo II — Melgar1:1
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 4924271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 1524612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- 6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 77% will not happen in roughly 23 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →