Ukrainian Premier League, round 12 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
FC Kharkiv — Karpaty
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
FC Kharkiv are slightly stronger: 41% against 27%, draw 32%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- FC Kharkiv are 117 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Kharkiv — No. 4, 21 pts; Karpaty — No. 5, 19 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- FC Kharkiv: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: FC Kharkiv 1 win, Karpaty 0, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: FC Kharkiv 14, Karpaty 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Kharkiv — Karpaty What is xG? | 1.3–1.0 | |
| FC Kharkiv not to lose | 73% | |
| Karpaty not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Kharkiv
- FC Kharkiv goals
- Karpaty goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | FC Kharkiv | Karpaty |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 11.3 | 8.1 |
| On target | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 52 |
Form
- 24.10away · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi2:1
- 19.10Liviy Bereh2:1
- 10.10away · Chornomorets Odesa2:1
- 19.09Bukovyna Chernivtsi2:0
- 05.09Obolon Kyiv5:0
- 02.11Kudrivka5:0
- 25.10away · Chornomorets Odesa0:0
- 18.10Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi2:2
- 11.10away · Dynamo Kyiv0:1
- 20.09Veres Rivne1:1
Head to head
- 12.05.2026FC Kharkiv — Karpaty2:2
- 22.11.2025Karpaty — FC Kharkiv1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Dynamo Kyiv | 10 | 7 | +7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 11 | 5 | +14 | 19 |
| 6 | Zorya | 11 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- 3730321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- 3230372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →