Danish Superliga, round 14 · Sunday, 8 November, 20:00 (UTC+3)

FC Midtjylland — Sønderjyske

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Model prediction for 8 November

FC Midtjylland68%

Draw21%

Sønderjyske11%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

FC Midtjylland are clear favourites: 68% against 11% for the opponent, draw 21%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings FC Midtjylland are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
FC Midtjylland are 396 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: FC Midtjylland — No. 1, 31 pts; Sønderjyske — No. 12, 8 pts. A gap of 23 pts.
Last 5 meetings: FC Midtjylland 3 wins, Sønderjyske 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: FC Midtjylland — Sønderjyske What is xG?		2.3–1.0
FC Midtjylland not to lose		89%
Sønderjyske not to lose		32%
No draw		79%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		65%
Total under 2.5		35%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland goals
Sønderjyske goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	FC Midtjylland	Sønderjyske
Goals scored per match	2.0	1.5
Goals conceded per match	1.2	2.7
xG per match	1.66	1.15
Opponents’ xG	1.60	1.87
Shots	13.7	12.2
On target	5.0	4.4
Corners	4.3	4.3
Cards	1.4	2.2
Possession, %	44	43

Averages per match: FC Midtjylland — the last 10, Sønderjyske — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

FC Midtjylland

01.11away · Nordsjælland3:2
25.10Lyngby3:2
22.10St.Truiden0:1
19.10away · Viborg2:1
15.10away · Egnatia1:1

Sønderjyske

02.11FC København0:2
25.10away · AC Horsens1:5
18.10Silkeborg4:0
12.10away · AGF0:3
20.09Randers FC4:2

Head to head

26.07.2026Sønderjyske — FC Midtjylland2:3
23.04.2026Sønderjyske — FC Midtjylland1:2
04.04.2026FC Midtjylland — Sønderjyske2:2
23.11.2025Sønderjyske — FC Midtjylland2:1
28.07.2025FC Midtjylland — Sønderjyske6:2

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Championship round	FC Midtjylland	13	9	4	0	27–15	+12	31
2, Championship round	FC København	13	9	2	2	28–12	+16	29
11, Relegation round	Lyngby	13	2	5	6	19–28	-9	11
12, Relegation round	Sønderjyske	13	2	2	9	17–31	-14	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Danish Superliga on the same day

14:00
FC KøbenhavnBrøndby IF
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
16:00
AGFAC Horsens
632215
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
18:00
Randers FCNordsjælland
272846
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →