K League 1 (South Korea), round 36 · Sunday, 22 November, 08:00 (UTC+3)

Gimcheon Sangmu — Jeju SK

Model prediction for 22 November

Gimcheon Sangmu33%

Draw31%

Jeju SK36%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Gimcheon Sangmu 33%, Jeju SK 36%, draw 31%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

By the strength ratings Gimcheon Sangmu are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Jeju SK higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Gimcheon Sangmu — No. 10, 35 pts; Jeju SK — No. 7, 47 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
Gimcheon Sangmu: winless in 4; Jeju SK: winless in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu 1 win, Jeju SK 0, 4 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu — Jeju SK What is xG?		1.3–1.3
Gimcheon Sangmu not to lose		64%
Jeju SK not to lose		67%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		55%
Both teams to score: no		45%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Gimcheon Sangmu
Gimcheon Sangmu goals
Jeju SK goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Gimcheon Sangmu	Jeju SK
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded per match	1.3	1.4
xG per match	0.89	0.73
Opponents’ xG	1.03	0.62
Shots	14.4	12.5
On target	5.1	3.8
Corners	6.8	3.7
Cards	1.3	2.1
Possession, %	54	48

Averages per match: Gimcheon Sangmu — the last 10, Jeju SK — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Gimcheon Sangmu

31.10away · Gwangju FC1:1
24.10Daejeon Hana Citizen1:2
18.10away · FC Seoul2:2
10.10FC Anyang0:1
19.09away · Bucheon FC 19952:0

Jeju SK

01.11away · Pohang Steelers1:1
24.10away · Incheon United1:3
18.10away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:3
10.10away · FC Seoul1:2
20.09away · Gangwon FC1:0

Head to head

22.08.2026Jeju SK — Gimcheon Sangmu0:0
05.07.2026Gimcheon Sangmu — Jeju SK1:1
18.04.2026Jeju SK — Gimcheon Sangmu1:1
26.07.2025Gimcheon Sangmu — Jeju SK3:1
17.05.2025Gimcheon Sangmu — Jeju SK1:1

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Championship round	Gangwon FC	34	11	15	8	41–32	+9	48
7, Relegation round	Jeju SK	34	12	11	11	40–38	+2	47
8, Relegation round	FC Anyang	34	11	13	10	42–49	-7	46
9, Relegation round	Pohang Steelers	34	11	10	13	31–40	-9	43
10, Relegation round	Gimcheon Sangmu	34	5	20	9	34–42	-8	35
11, Relegation round	Bucheon FC 1995	34	7	11	16	33–49	-16	32

Season 2026

Full table

K League 1 on the same day

08:00
Gwangju FCBucheon FC 1995preliminary
452926
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →