K League 1 (South Korea), round 36 · Sunday, 22 November, 08:00 (UTC+3)

Gwangju FC — Bucheon FC 1995

Model prediction for 22 November

Gwangju FC45%

Draw29%

Bucheon FC 199526%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Gwangju FC are slightly stronger: 45% against 26%, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Gwangju FC are 89 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Gwangju FC — No. 12, 22 pts; Bucheon FC 1995 — No. 11, 32 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Bucheon FC 1995: 5 defeats in a row.
Last 3 meetings: Gwangju FC 1 win, Bucheon FC 1995 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gwangju FC — Bucheon FC 1995 What is xG?		1.6–1.1
Gwangju FC not to lose		74%
Bucheon FC 1995 not to lose		55%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC goals
Bucheon FC 1995 goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Gwangju FC	Bucheon FC 1995
Goals scored per match	1.9	0.6
Goals conceded per match	2.0	2.2
xG per match	1.00	0.57
Opponents’ xG	1.47	0.88
Shots	11.4	9.5
On target	5.1	3.9
Corners	2.3	3.5
Cards	1.6	2.3
Possession, %	44	41

Averages per match: Gwangju FC — the last 10, Bucheon FC 1995 — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Gwangju FC

31.10Gimcheon Sangmu1:1
24.10away · Bucheon FC 19953:0
18.10away · Daejeon Hana Citizen2:3
11.10Ulsan HD FC4:3
20.09away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:2

Bucheon FC 1995

01.11away · FC Anyang1:2
24.10Gwangju FC0:3
17.10away · Ulsan HD FC1:2
09.10away · Gangwon FC0:2
19.09Gimcheon Sangmu0:2

Head to head

24.10.2026Bucheon FC 1995 — Gwangju FC0:3
08.08.2026Bucheon FC 1995 — Gwangju FC0:0
11.04.2026Gwangju FC — Bucheon FC 19950:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10, Relegation round	Gimcheon Sangmu	34	5	20	9	34–42	-8	35
11, Relegation round	Bucheon FC 1995	34	7	11	16	33–49	-16	32
12, Relegation play-off	Gwangju FC	34	3	13	18	31–70	-39	22

Season 2026

Full table

K League 1 on the same day

08:00
Gimcheon SangmuJeju SKpreliminary
333136
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →