Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, 16:45 (UTC+3)

GKS Katowice — Lech Poznań

Model prediction for 22 November

GKS Katowice27%

Draw28%

Lech Poznań44%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lech Poznań are slightly stronger: 44% against 27%, draw 28%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 64%.

Why

By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Lech Poznań are 77 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: GKS Katowice — No. 6, 21 pts; Lech Poznań — No. 1, 31 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Lech Poznań: unbeaten in 4.
Last 4 meetings: GKS Katowice 0 wins, Lech Poznań 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: GKS Katowice — Lech Poznań What is xG?		1.4–1.8
GKS Katowice not to lose		56%
Lech Poznań not to lose		73%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		64%
Both teams to score: no		36%
Total over 2.5		60%
Total under 2.5		40%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice goals
Lech Poznań goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	GKS Katowice	Lech Poznań
Goals scored per match	2.1	2.3
Goals conceded per match	1.5	1.6
xG per match	1.90	2.12
Opponents’ xG	1.74	1.81
Shots	14.8	16.7
On target	4.9	5.5
Corners	3.8	5.5
Cards	1.9	1.7
Possession, %	47	51

Averages per match: GKS Katowice — the last 10, Lech Poznań — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

GKS Katowice

31.10Widzew Łódź3:2
24.10away · Korona Kielce0:1
17.10Pogoń Szczecin0:1
12.10Wieczysta Kraków2:1
09.10away · Raków Częstochowa4:1

Lech Poznań

31.10Wisła Kraków3:1
25.10away · Legia Warszawa2:1
22.10Sunderland1:1
18.10Korona Kielce6:1
15.10Bayer Leverkusen0:4

Head to head

12.04.2026Lech Poznań — GKS Katowice3:3
05.10.2025GKS Katowice — Lech Poznań0:1
18.05.2025GKS Katowice — Lech Poznań2:2
23.11.2024Lech Poznań — GKS Katowice2:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Champions League qualifying	Lech Poznań	12	10	1	1	32–11	+21	31
2, Champions League qualifying	Górnik Zabrze	13	8	4	1	21–11	+10	28
5	Zagłębie Lubin	13	6	4	3	16–15	+1	22
6	GKS Katowice	13	7	0	6	25–19	+6	21
7	Piast Gliwice	13	6	3	4	24–20	+4	21

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ekstraklasa on the same day

14:15
Raków CzęstochowaWidzew Łódźpreliminary
502723
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
19:30
Wisła PłockLegia Warszawapreliminary
323138
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →