Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, 14:15 (UTC+3)

Raków Częstochowa — Widzew Łódź

Model prediction for 22 November

Raków Częstochowa50%

Draw27%

Widzew Łódź23%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Raków Częstochowa are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

By the strength ratings Raków Częstochowa are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Raków Częstochowa are 79 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Raków Częstochowa — No. 17, 9 pts; Widzew Łódź — No. 14, 11 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Widzew Łódź: winless in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 4 wins, Widzew Łódź 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa — Widzew Łódź What is xG?		1.7–1.1
Raków Częstochowa not to lose		77%
Widzew Łódź not to lose		50%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		59%
Both teams to score: no		41%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa goals
Widzew Łódź goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Raków Częstochowa	Widzew Łódź
Goals scored per match	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded per match	2.3	1.7
xG per match	1.69	1.34
Opponents’ xG	2.34	1.99
Shots	16.0	14.0
On target	5.2	4.1
Corners	5.0	6.8
Cards	2.2	2.8
Possession, %	53	50

Averages per match: Raków Częstochowa — the last 10, Widzew Łódź — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Raków Częstochowa

02.11Pogoń Szczecin3:1
24.10away · Wisła Kraków1:2
16.10away · Wieczysta Kraków2:1
09.10GKS Katowice1:4
19.09away · Korona Kielce2:3

Widzew Łódź

31.10away · GKS Katowice2:3
23.10Górnik Zabrze1:1
16.10Wisła Kraków0:0
11.10away · Piast Gliwice1:2
18.09Wieczysta Kraków2:2

Head to head

04.04.2026Raków Częstochowa — Widzew Łódź1:1
28.09.2025Widzew Łódź — Raków Częstochowa0:1
24.05.2025Raków Częstochowa — Widzew Łódź2:1
30.11.2024Widzew Łódź — Raków Częstochowa2:3
27.04.2024Widzew Łódź — Raków Częstochowa0:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
13	Cracovia	13	3	3	7	15–21	-6	12
14	Widzew Łódź	13	1	8	4	17–19	-2	11
15	Radomiak Radom	13	3	2	8	15–29	-14	11
16, Relegation	Śląsk Wrocław	13	2	3	8	17–25	-8	9
17, Relegation	Raków Częstochowa	13	3	0	10	19–29	-10	9
18, Relegation	Wieczysta Kraków	13	2	2	9	17–26	-9	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ekstraklasa on the same day

16:45
GKS KatowiceLech Poznańpreliminary
272844
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
19:30
Wisła PłockLegia Warszawapreliminary
323138
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →