Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Wisła Płock — Legia Warszawa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Wisła Płock 32%, Legia Warszawa 38%, draw 31%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Legia Warszawa are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Legia Warszawa are 89 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Wisła Płock — No. 12, 15 pts; Legia Warszawa — No. 3, 24 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Wisła Płock 3 wins, Legia Warszawa 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wisła Płock — Legia Warszawa What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Wisła Płock not to lose | 62% | |
| Legia Warszawa not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wisła Płock
- Wisła Płock goals
- Legia Warszawa goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Wisła Płock | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 1.49 | 1.48 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.63 | 1.40 |
| Shots | 14.3 | 13.8 |
| On target | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| Cards | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 49 |
Form
- 31.10Piast Gliwice2:2
- 25.10away · Jagiellonia Białystok0:1
- 19.10Radomiak Radom1:0
- 09.10away · Wieczysta Kraków0:3
- 20.09away · Zagłębie Lubin2:0
- 30.10away · Górnik Zabrze0:0
- 25.10Lech Poznań1:2
- 17.10away · Cracovia1:1
- 11.10Wisła Kraków2:0
- 20.09away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:1
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Legia Warszawa — Wisła Płock2:1
- 17.08.2025Wisła Płock — Legia Warszawa1:0
- 28.04.2023Legia Warszawa — Wisła Płock2:0
- 14.10.2022Wisła Płock — Legia Warszawa2:1
- 12.12.2021Wisła Płock — Legia Warszawa1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Górnik Zabrze | 13 | 8 | +10 | 28 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Legia Warszawa | 13 | 6 | +12 | 24 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 12 | 7 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 13 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Wisła Płock | 12 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 13 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- Raków CzęstochowaWidzew Łódźpreliminary5027231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- GKS KatowiceLech Poznańpreliminary2728442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →