Polish Ekstraklasa, round 14 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Jagiellonia Białystok — GKS Katowice
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Jagiellonia Białystok are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Jagiellonia Białystok are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Jagiellonia Białystok are 69 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Jagiellonia Białystok — No. 9, 18 pts; GKS Katowice — No. 6, 21 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Jagiellonia Białystok 2 wins, GKS Katowice 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Jagiellonia Białystok — GKS Katowice What is xG? | 1.8–1.4 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok not to lose | 72% | |
| GKS Katowice not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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- Handicap Jagiellonia Białystok
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- GKS Katowice goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Jagiellonia Białystok | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.40 | 1.90 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.79 | 1.74 |
| Shots | 12.3 | 14.8 |
| On target | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 47 |
Form
- 31.10away · Wieczysta Kraków3:1
- 25.10Wisła Płock1:0
- 22.10Anderlecht0:3
- 18.10away · Zagłębie Lubin0:1
- 15.10Ararat Armenia3:1
- 31.10Widzew Łódź3:2
- 24.10away · Korona Kielce0:1
- 17.10Pogoń Szczecin0:1
- 12.10Wieczysta Kraków2:1
- 09.10away · Raków Częstochowa4:1
Head to head
- 17.05.2026GKS Katowice — Jagiellonia Białystok2:2
- 17.03.2026Jagiellonia Białystok — GKS Katowice2:1
- 02.03.2025Jagiellonia Białystok — GKS Katowice1:0
- 25.08.2024GKS Katowice — Jagiellonia Białystok3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zagłębie Lubin | 13 | 6 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 7 | +6 | 21 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 13 | 6 | +4 | 21 |
| 8 | Wisła Kraków | 13 | 6 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 12 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 13 | 5 | -5 | 18 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 5228211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 741891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →