Polish Ekstraklasa, round 14 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Lech Poznań — Zagłębie Lubin
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Lech Poznań are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 18%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
- Lech Poznań are 276 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Lech Poznań — No. 1, 31 pts; Zagłębie Lubin — No. 5, 22 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Lech Poznań: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Lech Poznań 4 wins, Zagłębie Lubin 1.
- Days of rest before the match: Lech Poznań 8, Zagłębie Lubin 6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lech Poznań — Zagłębie Lubin What is xG? | 2.2–0.8 | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 91% | |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Lech Poznań | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 2.12 | 1.46 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.81 | 1.54 |
| Shots | 16.7 | 13.2 |
| On target | 5.5 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 3.1 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 3.0 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 40 |
Form
- 31.10Wisła Kraków3:1
- 25.10away · Legia Warszawa2:1
- 22.10Sunderland1:1
- 18.10Korona Kielce6:1
- 15.10Bayer Leverkusen0:4
- 02.11Korona Kielce1:0
- 23.10away · Motor Lublin2:2
- 18.10Jagiellonia Białystok1:0
- 10.10away · Cracovia1:3
- 20.09Wisła Płock0:2
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Zagłębie Lubin — Lech Poznań0:1
- 12.09.2025Lech Poznań — Zagłębie Lubin1:2
- 23.02.2025Lech Poznań — Zagłębie Lubin3:1
- 17.08.2024Zagłębie Lubin — Lech Poznań0:1
- 10.02.2024Lech Poznań — Zagłębie Lubin2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Lech Poznań | 12 | 10 | +21 | 31 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Górnik Zabrze | 13 | 8 | +10 | 28 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 12 | 7 | +8 | 24 |
| 5 | Zagłębie Lubin | 13 | 6 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 7 | +6 | 21 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 5228211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →