Polish Ekstraklasa, round 14 · Sunday, 8 November, 19:30 (UTC+3)

Legia Warszawa — Raków Częstochowa

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 8 November

Legia Warszawa52%

Draw28%

Raków Częstochowa21%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Legia Warszawa are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings Legia Warszawa are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Legia Warszawa are 227 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Legia Warszawa — No. 3, 24 pts; Raków Częstochowa — No. 17, 9 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Legia Warszawa 0 wins, Raków Częstochowa 2, 3 draws.
Days of rest before the match: Legia Warszawa 9, Raków Częstochowa 6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Legia Warszawa — Raków Częstochowa What is xG?		1.7–1.1
Legia Warszawa not to lose		79%
Raków Częstochowa not to lose		48%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		54%
Total under 2.5		46%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa goals
Raków Częstochowa goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Legia Warszawa	Raków Częstochowa
Goals scored per match	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded per match	0.9	2.3
xG per match	1.48	1.69
Opponents’ xG	1.40	2.34
Shots	13.8	16.0
On target	4.6	5.2
Corners	4.4	5.0
Cards	1.6	2.2
Possession, %	49	53

Averages per match: Legia Warszawa — the last 10, Raków Częstochowa — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Legia Warszawa

30.10away · Górnik Zabrze0:0
25.10Lech Poznań1:2
17.10away · Cracovia1:1
11.10Wisła Kraków2:0
20.09away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:1

Raków Częstochowa

02.11Pogoń Szczecin3:1
24.10away · Wisła Kraków1:2
16.10away · Wieczysta Kraków2:1
09.10GKS Katowice1:4
19.09away · Korona Kielce2:3

Head to head

22.03.2026Legia Warszawa — Raków Częstochowa1:1
20.09.2025Raków Częstochowa — Legia Warszawa1:1
16.03.2025Raków Częstochowa — Legia Warszawa3:2
15.09.2024Legia Warszawa — Raków Częstochowa0:1
13.04.2024Raków Częstochowa — Legia Warszawa1:1

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Champions League qualifying	Górnik Zabrze	13	8	4	1	21–11	+10	28
3, Europa League or Conference League	Legia Warszawa	13	6	6	1	23–11	+12	24
4, Europa League or Conference League	Pogoń Szczecin	12	7	3	2	20–12	+8	24
16, Relegation	Śląsk Wrocław	13	2	3	8	17–25	-8	9
17, Relegation	Raków Częstochowa	13	3	0	10	19–29	-10	9
18, Relegation	Wieczysta Kraków	13	2	2	9	17–26	-9	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ekstraklasa on the same day

16:45
Jagiellonia BiałystokGKS Katowice
442728
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
22:15
Lech PoznańZagłębie Lubin
74189
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →