Tanzania Premier League, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Kagera Sugar — TRA United

Model prediction for 22 November

Kagera Sugar31%

Draw31%

TRA United38%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

TRA United are slightly stronger: 38% against 31%, draw 31%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

By the strength ratings TRA United are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
TRA United are 57 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Kagera Sugar — No. 16, 6 pts; TRA United — No. 12, 11 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Kagera Sugar: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 4 meetings: Kagera Sugar 1 win, TRA United 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kagera Sugar — TRA United What is xG?		1.0–1.2
Kagera Sugar not to lose		62%
TRA United not to lose		69%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		47%
Both teams to score: no		53%
Total over 2.5		40%
Total under 2.5		60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar goals
TRA United goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

Form

Kagera Sugar

01.11away · Young Africans0:4
28.10away · Coastal Union0:1
24.10away · JKT Tanzania0:1
17.10Polisi Tanzania FC1:1
09.10away · Mbeya City3:1

TRA United

02.11Fountain Gate FC3:2
29.10Geita Gold FC1:1
24.10Young Africans0:0
08.10away · Namungo FC0:1
13.09away · Pamba Jiji3:1

Head to head

11.02.2025Kagera Sugar — TRA United1:2
11.09.2024TRA United — Kagera Sugar1:0
17.04.2024TRA United — Kagera Sugar0:3
30.10.2023Kagera Sugar — TRA United0:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
11	Mbeya City	10	4	1	5	9–13	-4	13
12	TRA United	10	2	5	3	10–10	0	11
13	Geita Gold FC	11	2	3	6	11–18	-7	9
15	Fountain Gate FC	11	1	3	7	7–17	-10	6
16	Kagera Sugar	11	1	3	7	9–22	-13	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Tanzania Premier League on the same day

20:30
Geita Gold FCMashujaapreliminary
403128
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →