J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Friday, 20 November, 13:00 (UTC+3)

Kashima Antlers — Shimizu S-Pulse

Model prediction for 20 November

Kashima Antlers62%

Draw24%

Shimizu S-Pulse14%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kashima Antlers are clear favourites: 62% against 14% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

By the strength ratings Kashima Antlers are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Kashima Antlers are 338 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Kashima Antlers — No. 6, 23 pts; Shimizu S-Pulse — No. 13, 14 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Shimizu S-Pulse: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 2 meetings: Kashima Antlers 1 win, Shimizu S-Pulse 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kashima Antlers — Shimizu S-Pulse What is xG?		1.8–0.8
Kashima Antlers not to lose		86%
Shimizu S-Pulse not to lose		38%
No draw		76%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers goals
Shimizu S-Pulse goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Kashima Antlers	Shimizu S-Pulse
Goals scored per match	2.0	0.9
Goals conceded per match	1.6	2.0
xG per match	1.56	0.90
Opponents’ xG	0.99	1.79
Shots	16.2	9.6
On target	5.0	2.7
Corners	4.5	4.3
Cards	1.4	1.5
Possession, %	58	43

Averages per match: Kashima Antlers — the last 10, Shimizu S-Pulse — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kashima Antlers

31.10Cerezo Osaka4:1
24.10Kashiwa Reysol2:3
21.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC2:2
17.10V-Varen Nagasaki2:0
09.10Gamba Osaka2:0

Shimizu S-Pulse

31.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC0:2
24.10away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:4
21.10Machida Zelvia0:5
17.10Gamba Osaka2:2
11.10away · Mito Hollyhock2:1

Head to head

31.08.2025Shimizu S-Pulse — Kashima Antlers1:1
17.05.2025Kashima Antlers — Shimizu S-Pulse1:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5	Vissel Kobe	13	8	2	3	21–12	+9	26
6	Kashima Antlers	13	7	2	4	29–22	+7	23
7	Kawasaki Frontale	13	6	4	3	27–22	+5	22
12	Cerezo Osaka	13	3	5	5	13–23	-10	14
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	13	4	2	7	10–22	-12	14
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	13	3	4	6	17–23	-6	13

Season 2026/27

Full table

J1 League on the same day

13:00
Kashiwa ReysolJEF United Chibapreliminary
602416
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
13:00
Vissel KobeMito Hollyhockpreliminary
692010
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →