J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
Vissel Kobe — Mito Hollyhock
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Vissel Kobe are clear favourites: 69% against 10% for the opponent, draw 20%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vissel Kobe are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Vissel Kobe are 360 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Vissel Kobe — No. 5, 26 pts; Mito Hollyhock — No. 19, 9 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
- Mito Hollyhock: 5 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vissel Kobe — Mito Hollyhock What is xG? | 1.9–0.7 | |
| Vissel Kobe not to lose | 90% | |
| Mito Hollyhock not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Vissel Kobe
- Vissel Kobe goals
- Mito Hollyhock goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Vissel Kobe | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 1.62 | 0.62 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Shots | 13.9 | 7.6 |
| On target | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 2.8 |
| Cards | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 43 |
Form
- 31.10Nagoya Grampus3:1
- 24.10Machida Zelvia0:0
- 21.10away · Kawasaki Frontale1:2
- 18.10away · Fagiano Okayama FC3:0
- 09.10away · Kashiwa Reysol2:4
- 31.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
- 25.10away · FC Tokyo0:6
- 21.10away · Fagiano Okayama FC0:2
- 17.10Urawa Red Diamonds0:1
- 11.10Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 13 | 9 | +10 | 28 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 8 | +9 | 26 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 13 | 7 | +7 | 23 |
| 18, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 13 | 2 | -9 | 10 |
| 19, Relegation | Mito Hollyhock | 13 | 2 | -13 | 9 |
| 20, Relegation | Avispa Fukuoka | 13 | 2 | -11 | 7 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kashima AntlersShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary6224141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Kashiwa ReysolJEF United Chibapreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →