J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
Kashiwa Reysol — JEF United Chiba
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kashiwa Reysol are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kashiwa Reysol are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Kashiwa Reysol are 304 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Kashiwa Reysol — No. 4, 28 pts; JEF United Chiba — No. 18, 10 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: Kashiwa Reysol 1 win, JEF United Chiba 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol — JEF United Chiba What is xG? | 1.9–1.0 | |
| Kashiwa Reysol not to lose | 84% | |
| JEF United Chiba not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kashiwa Reysol
- Kashiwa Reysol goals
- JEF United Chiba goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Kashiwa Reysol | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.44 | 1.29 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.37 | 1.12 |
| Shots | 15.6 | 12.6 |
| On target | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 46 |
Form
- 31.10Urawa Red Diamonds4:0
- 24.10away · Kashima Antlers3:2
- 21.10away · FC Tokyo0:0
- 17.10Nagoya Grampus1:3
- 09.10Vissel Kobe4:2
- 01.11Avispa Fukuoka3:0
- 25.10away · Cerezo Osaka2:2
- 21.10away · Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
- 17.10Yokohama F.Marinos0:0
- 11.10V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
Head to head
- 23.05.2026Kashiwa Reysol — JEF United Chiba4:2
- 07.03.2026JEF United Chiba — Kashiwa Reysol2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 13 | 8 | +20 | 28 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 13 | 9 | +10 | 28 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 8 | +9 | 26 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 13 | 2 | -11 | 11 |
| 18, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 13 | 2 | -9 | 10 |
| 19, Relegation | Mito Hollyhock | 13 | 2 | -13 | 9 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kashima AntlersShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary6224141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Vissel KobeMito Hollyhockpreliminary6920101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →