Liga MX (Mexico), round 16 · Monday, 9 November, (UTC+3)
León — Chivas
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 9 November
In short
Chivas are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chivas are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: León — No. 7, 22 pts; Chivas — No. 2, 29 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Chivas: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: León 3 wins, Chivas 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: León — Chivas What is xG? | 1.3–1.6 | |
| León not to lose | 59% | |
| Chivas not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | León | Chivas |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 1.64 | 1.35 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.49 | 1.14 |
| Shots | 13.9 | 14.1 |
| On target | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 6.9 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 57 |
Form
Head to head
- 19.03.2026Chivas — León5:0
- 20.07.2025León — Chivas1:0
- 29.01.2025León — Chivas2:1
- 19.09.2024Chivas — León2:0
- 10.03.2024Chivas — León1:2
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- 5725171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →