Liga MX (Mexico), round 16 · Monday, 9 November, 03:00 (UTC+3)

Querétaro — Puebla

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 9 November

Querétaro57%

Draw25%

Puebla17%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Querétaro are clear favourites: 57% against 17% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

By the strength ratings Querétaro are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Querétaro are 193 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Querétaro — No. 11, 20 pts; Puebla — No. 14, 16 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
Querétaro: 4 defeats in a row; Puebla: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Querétaro 4 wins, Puebla 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Querétaro — Puebla What is xG?		1.9–1.0
Querétaro not to lose		83%
Puebla not to lose		43%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Querétaro
Querétaro goals
Puebla goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Querétaro	Puebla
Goals scored per match	1.3	0.8
Goals conceded per match	1.7	1.6
xG per match	1.63	0.78
Opponents’ xG	1.70	1.60
Shots	14.3	13.8
On target	4.1	4.0
Corners	5.4	4.6
Cards	2.3	1.2
Possession, %	43	46

Averages per match: Querétaro — the last 10, Puebla — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Querétaro

31.10away · FC Juárez1:3
26.10Cruz Azul1:3
21.10away · Atlético de San Luis1:2
18.10away · Santos Laguna0:5
11.10Atlante2:0

Puebla

31.10Pumas1:2
26.10away · Atlas3:4
22.10Monterrey1:4
17.10away · Tijuana0:0
10.10León1:1

Head to head

25.04.2026Puebla — Querétaro1:2
05.10.2025Querétaro — Puebla3:1
03.03.2025Querétaro — Puebla2:0
14.09.2024Puebla — Querétaro2:1
24.02.2024Puebla — Querétaro0:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Apertura)
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10	Pumas	15	5	5	5	22–24	-2	20
11	Querétaro	14	6	2	6	18–21	-3	20
12	Pachuca	15	5	4	6	25–19	+6	19
13	Atlético de San Luis	15	5	4	6	19–23	-4	19
14	Puebla	15	4	4	7	17–23	-6	16
15	Tigres	15	3	6	6	15–22	-7	15

Season 2026 (Apertura)

Full table

Liga MX on the same day

05:10
LeónChivas
302941
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →