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Paraguayan Primera Division · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Libertad — Cerro Porteño

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Model prediction for 5 November

Libertad41%
Draw30%
Cerro Porteño29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Libertad are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 30%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Libertad are 75 points higher on Elo.

2 more facts behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Libertad 0 wins, Cerro Porteño 2, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Libertad — Cerro Porteño What is xG?1.4–1.2
Libertad not to lose71%
Cerro Porteño not to lose59%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Cerro Porteño to win” at 29%, the market at 34%.

  • Libertad to winModel41%odds 2.44Market39%odds 2.57
  • DrawModel30%odds 3.33Market27%odds 3.67
  • Cerro Porteño to winModel29%odds 3.45Market34%odds 2.96
  • Total over 2.5Model49%odds 2.04Market49%odds 2.05
  • Total under 2.5Model51%odds 1.96Market51%odds 1.95
  • Both teams to score: yesModel56%odds 1.79Market55%odds 1.81
  • Both teams to score: noModel44%odds 2.27Market45%odds 2.24

Check your odds

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Libertad
  • Libertad goals
  • Cerro Porteño goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLibertadCerro Porteño
Goals scored per match1.31.5
Goals conceded per match1.31.1
xG per match0.000.00
Opponents’ xG0.000.00
Shots14.915.9
On target4.64.7
Corners4.66.4
Cards2.31.4
Possession, %5858

Averages per match: Libertad — the last 10, Cerro Porteño — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Libertad

  1. GKRodrigo Morínigo
  2. DFAlan Benítez
  3. DFNicolás Freire
  4. DFNéstor Giménez
  5. DFGilberto Flores
  6. MFHugo Fernández
  7. MFÁlvaro Campuzano (C)
  8. MFMarcelo Fernández
  9. MFAgustín Manzur
  10. FWIvan Ramírez
  11. FWElvio Vera
Bench (12)
  1. DFRobert Rojas
  2. MFLucas Sanabria
  3. MFLorenzo Melgarejo
  4. FWGustavo Aguilar
  5. GKVíctor Rojas
  6. MFFederico Carrizo
  7. DFAlexis Fretes
  8. DFEstiven Villalba
  9. DFRodrigo Villalba
  10. DFThiago Fernández
  11. MFJoaquín Bogarín
  12. FWRodrigo Vera

Cerro Porteño

  1. GKÁngel Martínez
  2. DFGustavo Velázquez (C)
  3. DFBlás Riveros
  4. DFLucas Merolla
  5. DFIván Ramírez
  6. MFJorge Morel
  7. MFCarlos Chena
  8. MFCesar Bobadilla
  9. FWMateo Klimowicz
  10. FWPablo Vegetti
  11. FWIgnacio Aliseda
Bench (12)
  1. GKManuel Roffo
  2. MFAgustín Almendra
  3. MFAriel Gamarra
  4. FWJonathan Torres
  5. FWSergio Araújo
  6. FWSantiago Mosquera
  7. DFAlexis Cañete
  8. DFMarcelo Chaparro
  9. DFJosué Servín
  10. MFGastón Giménez
  11. MFAmín Cristaldo
  12. MFDerlis Rodríguez

Form

Libertad

  • 01.11away · Sportivo San Lorenzo1:2
  • 24.10Luqueño1:0
  • 19.10away · Sportivo Trinidense0:1
  • 12.10Guaraní2:2
  • 05.10away · Recoleta2:1

Cerro Porteño

  • 01.11Olimpia0:2
  • 26.10away · Sportivo San Lorenzo3:1
  • 18.10Sportivo Ameliano2:2
  • 11.10away · Luqueño3:0
  • 06.102 de Mayo0:2

Head to head

  • 30.08.2026Cerro Porteño — Libertad1:1
  • 22.03.2026Libertad — Cerro Porteño2:3
  • 25.01.2026Cerro Porteño — Libertad1:1
  • 24.11.2025Cerro Porteño — Libertad1:0
  • 31.08.2025Libertad — Cerro Porteño1:1

Full record: 15 meetings →

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →