Paraguayan Primera Division · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco
Olimpia — Recoleta
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
In short
Olimpia are clear favourites: 70% against 10% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Olimpia are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Olimpia are 336 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Olimpia: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Olimpia 4 wins, Recoleta 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Olimpia — Recoleta What is xG? | 2.1–0.8 | |
| Olimpia not to lose | 90% | |
| Recoleta not to lose | 30% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
Model vs market
The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Total over 2.5” at 56%, the market at 63%.
- Olimpia to winModel70%odds 1.43Market74%odds 1.36
- DrawModel20%odds 5.00Market16%odds 6.18
- Recoleta to winModel10%odds 10.00Market10%odds 9.75
- Total over 2.5Model56%odds 1.79Market63%odds 1.60
- Total under 2.5Model44%odds 2.27Market37%odds 2.67
- Both teams to score: yesModel53%odds 1.89Market51%odds 1.97
- Both teams to score: noModel47%odds 2.13Market49%odds 2.03
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Olimpia
- Olimpia goals
- Recoleta goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Olimpia | Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 19.0 | 12.0 |
| On target | 6.5 | 3.1 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Cards | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 57 | 53 |
Last starting lineups
Olimpia
- GKGastón Olveira
- DFMateo Gamarra
- DFRaúl Cáceres
- DFAlan Rodríguez
- DFBryan Bentaberry
- MFFernando Cardozo
- MFRichard Ortiz (C)
- FWGabriel Ávalos
- FWFranco Alfonso
- FWEduardo Delmás
- FWAlex Franco
Bench (12)
- DFTim Payne
- FWBraian Romero
- MFRichard Sánchez
- FWSebastián Ferreira
- MFRomeo Benítez
- MFIván Leguizamón
- FWRodney Redes
- MFEsteban Matus
- DFGustavo Vargas
- GKSebastián Lentinelly
- MFSebastián Quintana
- FWDerlis González
Recoleta
- GKOscar Toledo
- DFNicolás Marotta
- DFBlas Medina
- DFLucas Monzón
- DFPedro Ríos
- MFManuel Schupp
- MFClaudio Garay (C)
- MFAlexander Franco
- MFBrahian Ferreira
- FWAldo González
- FWPaul Charpentier
Bench (12)
- GKAndrés Marsengo
- DFLuis Cardozo
- MFAlejandro Silva
- MFRonal Domínguez
- DFJosé Espínola
- DFMarcos Pereira
- MFFernando Galeano
- MFMarcelo Cañete
- FWThiago Vidal
- FWWilfrido Báez
- MFMathías Masi
- DFRenzo Martino
Form
- 01.11away · Cerro Porteño2:0
- 25.10away · Sportivo Ameliano3:2
- 18.102 de Mayo3:0
- 11.10away · Rubio Ñú0:0
- 07.10Nacional (PAR)1:1
- 31.10Sportivo Ameliano3:0
- 25.10away · 2 de Mayo1:1
- 17.10Rubio Ñú1:0
- 13.10away · Nacional (PAR)0:1
- 05.10Libertad1:2
Head to head
- 30.08.2026Recoleta — Olimpia1:2
- 15.05.2026Olimpia — Recoleta3:2
- 15.03.2026Recoleta — Olimpia0:1
- 10.10.2025Recoleta — Olimpia1:0
- 31.07.2025Olimpia — Recoleta1:0
Paraguayan Primera on the same day
- 4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 2631432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →