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Paraguayan Primera Division · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Ameliano Villeta

Sportivo Ameliano — Guaraní

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Model prediction for 5 November

Sportivo Ameliano26%
Draw31%
Guaraní43%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Guaraní are slightly stronger: 43% against 26%, draw 31%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Guaraní are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Sportivo Ameliano's starting XI is weaker than usual (attack).

Facts

  • Sportivo Ameliano: winless in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sportivo Ameliano 0 wins, Guaraní 2, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sportivo Ameliano — Guaraní What is xG?1.0–1.4
Sportivo Ameliano not to lose57%
Guaraní not to lose74%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Sportivo Ameliano to win” at 26%, the market at 32%.

  • Sportivo Ameliano to winModel26%odds 3.85Market32%odds 3.13
  • DrawModel31%odds 3.23Market29%odds 3.50
  • Guaraní to winModel43%odds 2.33Market39%odds 2.53
  • Total over 2.5Model46%odds 2.17Market44%odds 2.30
  • Total under 2.5Model54%odds 1.85Market56%odds 1.77
  • Both teams to score: yesModel51%odds 1.96Market51%odds 1.97
  • Both teams to score: noModel49%odds 2.04Market49%odds 2.03

Check your odds

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSportivo AmelianoGuaraní
Goals scored per match1.01.2
Goals conceded per match1.70.7
xG per match0.000.00
Opponents’ xG0.000.00
Shots13.314.5
On target4.74.8
Corners4.45.7
Cards2.31.8
Possession, %5450

Averages per match: Sportivo Ameliano — the last 10, Guaraní — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Sportivo Ameliano

  1. GKÁngel Sánchez
  2. DFAbel Paredes (C)
  3. DFHugo Javier Benítez
  4. DFRonald Peralta
  5. DFLuca Falabella
  6. MFRaúl Cabral
  7. MFValentín Larralde
  8. MFJonathan Benítez
  9. FWFredy Vera
  10. FWEdgar Páez
  11. FWRichard Torales
Bench (12)
  1. MFWalter Rodríguez
  2. DFLuciano Suárez
  3. MFLuis Olmedo
  4. FWAlcides Ávalos
  5. FWCarlos Favero
  6. DFFrancisco Báez
  7. DFFabián Franco
  8. MFEstivel Moreira
  9. MFLuis Ortiz
  10. MFLuis Ayala
  11. MFMarcelo Camargo
  12. GKJunior Balbuena

Guaraní

  1. GKMiguel Martínez
  2. DFArmando Méndez
  3. DFImanol Segovia
  4. DFThiago Servín
  5. DFLeandro Allende
  6. MFLuis Martínez
  7. MFGiovanni Gómez
  8. MFVictor Céspedes
  9. MFMaximiliano Añasco
  10. FWJorge Recalde
  11. FWFernando Fernández (C)
Bench (12)
  1. DFAleksandr Lomakin
  2. FWJuan Manuel García
  3. DFMiguel Jacquet
  4. MFCarlos Arrúa
  5. FWThiago Romero
  6. DFDaniel Pérez
  7. MFMatías López
  8. MFJesús Llano
  9. DFRené Rodríguez
  10. FWPatricio Coronel
  11. MFMartín Maldonado
  12. GKGustavo Dionisi

Form

Sportivo Ameliano

  • 31.10away · Recoleta0:3
  • 25.10Olimpia2:3
  • 18.10away · Cerro Porteño2:2
  • 12.10away · 2 de Mayo0:1
  • 06.10Rubio Ñú1:2

Guaraní

  • 31.102 de Mayo1:0
  • 23.10away · Rubio Ñú2:0
  • 17.10Nacional (PAR)0:2
  • 12.10away · Libertad2:2
  • 03.10Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1

Head to head

  • 31.08.2026Guaraní — Sportivo Ameliano1:1
  • 16.05.2026Guaraní — Sportivo Ameliano1:0
  • 16.03.2026Sportivo Ameliano — Guaraní0:0
  • 12.10.2025Sportivo Ameliano — Guaraní1:1
  • 31.07.2025Guaraní — Sportivo Ameliano4:1

Full record: 15 meetings →

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →