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Ligue 1, round 9 · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3) · Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Lorient — Brest

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Lorient39%
Draw29%
Brest32%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Lorient to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Lorient 39%, Brest 32%, draw 29%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Lorient are 131 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Lorient 1 win, Brest 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lorient — Brest What is xG?1.4–1.2
Lorient not to lose68%
Brest not to lose61%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Lorient
  • Lorient goals
  • Brest goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 41′Mama Baldé · Brest
  2. 58′Souleymane Touré · Lorient
  3. 69′Ludovic Ajorque · Brest0:1
  4. 91′Aiyegun Tosin · missed penalty · Lorient
  5. 92′Noah Edjouma · Brest0:2
Substitutions (8)
  1. 66′Aiyegun Tosin ↔ Ibrahima Baldé · Lorient
  2. 66′Gabin Bernardeau ↔ Souleymane Faye · Lorient
  3. 76′Giovani Versini ↔ Kamory Doumbia · Brest
  4. 76′Noah Edjouma ↔ Mama Baldé · Brest
  5. 79′Théo Le Bris ↔ Jean-Victor Makengo · Lorient
  6. 79′Noah Mbamba ↔ Noah Cadiou · Lorient
  7. 82′Mamady Diambou ↔ Pathé Mboup · Brest
  8. 86′Srdjan Kuzmić ↔ Dembo Sylla · Lorient

Match statistics

LorientBrest
  • 1.63Expected goals (xG)1.22
  • 52Possession, %48
  • 15Shots12
  • 0On target4
  • 3Big chances2
  • 8Corners2
  • 11Fouls16
  • 1Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Lorient

  1. GKYvon Mvogo6.3
  2. DFMontassar Talbi (C)6.7
  3. DFNathaniel Adjei7.0
  4. DFSouleymane Touré7.4
  5. MFDembo Sylla86′6.9
  6. MFNoah Cadiou79′6.9
  7. MFArthur Avom7.9
  8. MFArsène Kouassi7.5
  9. MFJean-Victor Makengo79′6.6
  10. FWIbrahima Baldé66′6.1
  11. FWSouleymane Faye66′6.3
Came on (5)
  1. DFSrdjan Kuzmić4′
  2. MFGabin Bernardeau24′6.4
  3. MFThéo Le Bris11′6.5
  4. MFNoah Mbamba11′6.1
  5. FWAiyegun Tosin24′5.6

Brest

  1. GKEgil Selvik7.1
  2. DFKenny Lala6.4
  3. DFGautier Lloris7.2
  4. DFBradley Locko7.3
  5. MFJoris Chotard6.9
  6. MFHugo Magnetti (C)6.9
  7. MFKamory Doumbia76′7.4
  8. MFLucas Tousart8.0
  9. FWPathé Mboup82′7.1
  10. FWLudovic Ajorque7.6
  11. FWMama Baldé76′6.9
Came on (3)
  1. FWGiovani Versini14′7.0
  2. MFNoah Edjouma14′6.7
  3. MFMamady Diambou8′

Form

Lorient

  • 25.10away · Angers0:0
  • 18.10Monaco1:0
  • 10.10Paris FC1:0
  • 19.09away · Le Mans1:2
  • 12.09Toulouse2:2

Brest

  • 23.10Nice1:2
  • 17.10away · Lille1:1
  • 10.10Angers5:1
  • 20.09away · Auxerre1:2
  • 13.09Paris Saint-Germain0:1

Head to head

  • 07.02.2026Brest — Lorient2:0
  • 19.10.2025Lorient — Brest3:3
  • 31.03.2024Lorient — Brest0:1
  • 20.12.2023Brest — Lorient4:0
  • 07.05.2023Lorient — Brest2:1

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
9Lens941416–13+313
10Brest933316–12+412
11Lorient93337–8-112
12Toulouse924312–13-110

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Le HavreLorient8 November · Ligue 1
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
  • BrestLyon8 November · Ligue 1
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →