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Ligue 1, round 11 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Lorient — Rennes

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Model prediction for 22 November

Lorient33%
Draw26%
Rennes40%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Lorient 33%, Rennes 40%, draw 26%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Rennes higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

  • League table: Lorient — No. 11, 12 pts; Rennes — No. 5, 16 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lorient 5 wins, Rennes 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lorient — Rennes What is xG?1.3–1.4
Lorient not to lose60%
Rennes not to lose67%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Lorient
  • Lorient goals
  • Rennes goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLorientRennes
Goals scored per match0.71.9
Goals conceded per match1.01.8
xG per match1.151.93
Opponents’ xG1.111.85
Shots10.618.0
On target2.76.7
Corners3.86.4
Cards1.21.9
Possession, %4954

Averages per match: Lorient — the last 10, Rennes — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Lorient

  • 02.11Brest0:2
  • 25.10away · Angers0:0
  • 18.10Monaco1:0
  • 10.10Paris FC1:0
  • 19.09away · Le Mans1:2

Rennes

  • 30.10away · Nice2:5
  • 25.10Strasbourg3:0
  • 22.10away · Juventus2:2
  • 18.10away · Paris FC3:4
  • 15.10OFI Crete2:1

Head to head

  • 24.01.2026Rennes — Lorient0:2
  • 24.08.2025Lorient — Rennes4:0
  • 03.03.2024Rennes — Lorient1:2
  • 22.10.2023Lorient — Rennes2:1
  • 27.01.2023Lorient — Rennes2:1

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Champions League qualifyingParis FC952216–10+617
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueRennes951320–19+116
6, Europa League or Conference LeagueMarseille950420–13+715
10Brest933316–12+412
11Lorient93337–8-112
12Toulouse924312–13-110

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • Paris FCAngerspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • MarseilleLe Manspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →